Spain’s cabinet has just approved a law that allows over half a million undocumented migrants and asylum seekers already in the country to regularise their status, giving them temporary residence and the right to work. Applicants now have until 30 June to prove that they do not have a criminal record and that by the end of 2025 they had either been in Spain for at least five months or had sought international protection.

Given that Spain has among the highest unemployment rates in the European Union and an acute housing shortage, many feel it’s only common sense to encourage those who have no right to residence to leave rather than settle

Spain’s socialist prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, argues that western nations are facing a demographic crisis; with birth rates failing to keep pace, they must turn to immigration to avoid a shrinking population. Without a steady influx of newcomers, he suggests, they risk severe economic stagnation and the collapse of essential public services as workforces dwindle. Having grown at a rate of 600,000 a year since the end of the pandemic, Spain’s total foreign-born population currently stands at ten million (a fifth of the total population).

Supporters of the measure point out that the undocumented migrants already have access to free health care and education. Turning them into taxpayers is simply the logical way to ensure they are contributing to the national budget rather than just drawing from it. But Sánchez also suggests that in addition to this economic incentive there is also a moral duty. Many Spaniards emigrated in the 1950s and 60s. ‘It is our duty to become the welcoming and tolerant society that our own relatives would have hoped to find on the other side of our borders,’ he wrote in the New York Times.

El País, Spain’s centre-left newspaper of record, says ‘Pedro Sánchez and his government are … convinced that most Spaniards have a different view of immigration to that of other Europeans…   the data, in the government’s view, shows that immigration in Spain is a success story accounting for much of the positive economic performance of recent years.’

In an open letter to the Spanish people published today, Sánchez notes that the regularisation recognises ‘the reality of almost half a million people who are already part of our daily lives… who care for our elderly, work to ensure food reaches our homes, innovate, start businesses… People who build the rich, open and diverse Spain that we are and aspire to be.’ He concludes: ‘Today we face two paths. One taken by those who wish to sow fear, pit people against people and condemn thousands to exclusion. The other taken by those of us who understand that migration is a reality that must be managed responsibly, integrated fairly and transformed into shared prosperity. Spain has always chosen the second path. We have done so before. And we are doing so again today.’

But there is strong opposition to the measure. Analyses carried out both by the police’s National Centre for Immigration and Borders (CNIF), and other organisations, suggest that the number about to seek legal status may be much higher than expected. Given that Spain has among the highest unemployment rates in the European Union and an acute housing shortage, many feel it’s only common sense to encourage those who have no right to residence to leave rather than settle.

There’s also the danger of creating an underclass. A significant socioeconomic gap is widening between native Spaniards and immigrants. While Spanish early school-leaving rates have improved, foreigner rates remain high at 30 per cent. This educational disparity mirrors poor living conditions: immigrants are four times more likely to face overcrowding and poverty, and many struggle with housing payments. The divide risks creating a fractured society. Last year saw episodes of unrest between locals and immigrants of North African origin.

Both the right-wing Partido Popular and the even more right-wing Vox oppose the move. Santiago Abascal, the leader of Vox, posted on social media: ‘Sánchez hates Spaniards and that’s why he wants to replace them.’ He added that the regularisation ‘will attract millions more, further exacerbating the collapse of healthcare, housing and security’. Abascal has previously called for up to eight million immigrants, including those born in Spain, to be deported.

Support for Vox has increased in recent regional elections. In Aragon in February for example just after the plan to regularise undocumented immigrants was announced, Vox doubled its 2023 vote. Aragon is regarded as a key indicator of national sentiment.

A general election is due by August 2027. The likely result is that the Partido Popular will win the most seats but will nevertheless need the support of Vox to form a government. All the signs suggest that Vox will drive a hard bargain and there have even been rumours that Abascal will want to be minister of the interior with responsibility for immigration. If so then there could be, to put it mildly, a radical change in direction.

In the short term, Sánchez, aware that his measure was most unlikely to be approved by parliament, opted instead to pass the regularisation law by decree – a process he frequently uses since it avoids debate but which is only supposed to be used in the event of exceptional national emergency.