A good friend, whose views on the world are pretty close to my own, is used to being ignored in the workplace. Used to colleagues steering clear of political discussions, and certainly steering clear of engaging with my friend.

Now? Not so much. The colleagues are talking politics. Are up and about, as the cricket commentators now say. Are a bit pissed off, perhaps, with the overall direction of travel. Are willing to treat One Nation and its supporters and fellow travellers as other-than-lepers. Their votes might be in play.

For many about the place in these times, Australian politics is interesting again. There is now a real choice. It’s great to see, whatever you might think of the (shit) way things are going.

Call it the return of the disillusioned.

There are several categories of intending or real One Nation voters. They include the former hold-your-nose voters placing one against the Coalition, but without the remotest enthusiasm. They include the hate-the Uniparty brigade. They include the Covid ‘deniers’. (Remember that Malcolm Roberts was leading the charge against the Covidistas… And Pauline Hanson is the only one still calling for a Royal Commission.) They include libertarians like Topher Field, who recognise the fight we are in and know where progress and pushback will be achieved. (One Nation, of course, is decidedly not libertarian.) They include gazillions of regional Australians who have come to see the futility of the Brokeback Nats. They possibly include more than a few old Labor voters who inhabit what is left of the outer suburbs of our once great cities, now barely recognisable migrant ghettos. And they might even include a few former informal voters or non-turner-uppers who had given up on the system.

The return of the disillusioned seems apt. In Britain, they are experiencing the same thing. Insurgent parties are pulling back those who had left the system. Of course, in the UK, it is voluntary voting. So, part of the challenge is getting non-voters to the polling booths. To win seats, or at least to do well electorally, might only require getting recent non-voters to turn up.

Given all this…

The right-of-centre legacy party rump – in every sense of that word – is on the warpath, in two British countries. Hint – one of these is us.

They are after upstart, insurgent parties. In Australia, it is One Nation that the establishment fears and is coming for. In Britain, the establishment parties – which as of now include Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, and this will be news to most Australians, including the punditocracy – are going after Rupert Lowe’s recently formed and rapidly growing Restore Britain.

(Of course, more Australians have now heard of Restore Britain following Elon Musk’s weekend endorsement. With 29 million views. Ouch.)

Saying that ‘a vote for One Nation is a vote for Labor’, or that a British vote for Restore (in the coming Makerfield by-election) is a vote for Andy Burnham (British Labour’s seeming outsider-saviour) suggests that those making this claim think, like medieval kings, that they ‘own’ your vote. Folks, you do not ‘own’ votes’. You have to earn them, in our system, or what is left of it. Splitting the right-vote is now the mantra for legacy parties and their fellow pundit-travellers.

The legacy parties think they own votes. They do not. They have forfeited their right to make that wafer-thin argument, through their own betrayal of the electorate. Copacabana Albo and his British buddy, Two-Tier Starmer, will only retain government if people keep voting Labo(u)r. That is not Pauline Hanson’s or Rupert Lowe’s fault.

Two recent podcasts tell the story for those not familiar with current British politics. Here is the first:

The second is an interview with the legendary Andrew Bridgen. Brexit hero. Covid hero. Now, insurgent party hero. Bridgen knows where the bodies are buried, having been a Tory, then independent, member of the House of Commons. He has close knowledge of the system and the right world views and instincts. He is now on Team Restore. There are few better analysts of British politics.

Reform UK has sold its insurgent soul.

Nigel Farage’s many sins should be the subject of another post. Assuming, saviour-like, that he owns your vote is one. Another is, to my mind, his MIA effort during Covid. Another is his crucifixion of Rupert Lowe. Another is his current embrace of failed, pathetic former Tory ministers as prominent members. Robert Jenrick, anyone? He was the Tory Minister for Immigration who, in my opinion, waved in the third world.

The final is, in my view, Farage’s utter abandonment of core-right policies and his promotion of diverse candidates from central casting for key seats. Nope. This guy isn’t the answer. I believe he is an establishment polly in waiting. Eyes over the target. The target is Number Ten. It is not restoring Britain.

Pauline Hanson has some challenges. It isn’t just about getting great candidates. That worked in Farrer. One Nation has to emulate Restore Britain in activating a cadre of committed activists who will produce a great ground-game. And who will work every day from now until the next election. Work at earning the votes that the establishment parties believe they own, but don’t.

The first great achievement of Pauline Hanson and Rupert Lowe will be to resurrect a belief in the capacity of our busted flush democratic systems to deliver for the forgotten people outcomes that will work for the third (at least) of the electorate that have all but given up on the possibility that we can vote our way out of the messes that both countries are in.

Those right across the spectrum should be in favour of anyone who restores the faith of the people in representative democracy. Where politicians do what they say. Politicians that don’t lie. Where accountability counts. Where mandates still mean something. Where governing doesn’t mean ruling in an unstated and under-reported alliance with one’s corporate mates. Where ‘my word is my bond’. Where one can’t just organise CGT ‘carve outs’ for those with wealth and power and voice and insider trading political mates. Where one’s party isn’t run by unelected scumbags whose only skill set is gaming the system.

The disillusioned sure need rescuing. If they all give up on voting our way out of the mess, well, the alternative won’t be pretty.

The second (of course) will be fixing, when in government, all the disastrous policy settings with which we have been saddled, against our will, to be more in line with what most people actually want.

My friend’s work colleagues are waking up. Let’s hope this isn’t one isolated case study but an emerging, broad trend. A lot is riding on it.