The election result surprised pollsters, punters and most commentators. But as I argued early last Wednesday on the Spectator Australia site and then on 2GB, the defeat of Shorten and the return of Morrison government was predictable.

Apart from the ‘shy-tory’ problem where voters do not reveal who they are voting for, the pollsters underestimated how the approximately 15 per cent voting for small conservative parties sent their preferences to the Coalition.