Two months ago, Western nations were polishing their climate agenda and promoting themselves as Net Zero superpowers. Now, they’re locked in a mad dash to secure oil and re-open the Strait of Hormuz before civilisation collapses.
Yesterday, Foreign Minister Penny Wong joined 40 countries and agency representatives on a joint call to support ‘international efforts to ensure critical waterways are not held hostage by the Iranian regime’.
Convened by UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, the conference all also included interested parties from the European Union and the International Maritime Organisation.
For weeks, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to international shipping. Some tankers who turned off their transponders and tried to navigate Iran’s blockade were struck and destroyed.
Not even the might of the American Navy can guarantee safe passage against Iran’s cheap and nasty mines, drones, and anti-ship missiles. Oil containers are slow-moving, large, predictable targets traversing a narrow passage of water. This makes them easy prey for coastal warfare and the US isn’t exactly keen to risk their expensive fleet or a ground invasion.
For now, US and Israeli missions have threatened Iran with the wider destruction of its energy grid and nuclear assets in a ‘stop it or else’ offer.
The problem with a dictatorship of replaceable supreme leaders is that they are answerable to no one. It is not as if the people of Iran can pressure their leaders into taking a deal. They could hold out indefinitely and use their terror proxies to spread chaos throughout the West.
The vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz has been a problem for over a thousand years. That the world chose to funnel its critical oil supply through it is a mistake that began in 1908 and now has to be fixed.
How will they fix it? Let’s see what Foreign Minister Penny Wong has in mind…
‘Iran is deliberately inflicting economic pain on communities worldwide, including the Indo-Pacific, with the costs borne disproportionately by the most vulnerable. Australia joined partners in condemning the Iranian regime’s weaponisation of the Strait of Hormuz.’
Wong is kidding herself if she thinks what’s left of the Iranian regime cares about ‘vulnerable’ people. Iran only repeats Woke talking points when UN money is on the table.
‘Ministers urged Iran to act in line with UN Security Council Resolution 2817, which reaffirmed that the exercise of navigational rights and freedoms by merchant and commercial vessels, in accordance with international law, must be respected, particularly around critical maritime routes.
‘The focus of last night’s meeting was diplomatic and civilian initiatives countries could pursue to make the Strait of Hormuz accessible and safe. Ministers agreed on the importance of continued coordination and collective action.
‘Australia is not taking offensive action against Iran and we are not deploying troops on the ground in Iran.
‘The Australian government continues to support de-escalation and the resolution of this conflict.
‘The longer this war goes on, the more significant the impact on the global economy will be.’
To translate the waffle, the Minister’s plan is to have a stern group chat with Iran.
While this was taking place the US, which wasn’t invited to the conference, blew up Iran’s prized B1 bridge in the Alborz province while repeating demands to re-open the Strait of Hormuz.
‘Our military, the greatest and most powerful (by far!) anywhere in the world, hasn’t even started destroying what’s left in Iran. Bridges next, then electric power plants! New regime leadership knows what has to be done, and has to be done, FAST!’
To be fair, Donald Trump did angrily tell Europe to ‘go get your own oil’ earlier in the week and that appears to be what they’re doing. Well. Sort of. They’re talking about it.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer acknowledged that any plan to guarantee transit would have to include removing landmines and protecting tankers with military assets. What line they are prepared to walk between defensive and offensive remains to be seen.
Meanwhile, the Philippines, which has maintained diplomatic relations with Iran, has apparently negotiated safe passage of its ships. The Philippines have a significant oil-based trade relationship with Iran. In return, Iran has invested over a hundred million in their domestic petrochemical market. They were one of the nations to support Iran’s right to pursue a peaceful nuclear energy program. Yesterday it was reported they had a ‘productive conversation’ which had ‘opened the door’ to oil shipments.
Screenshot from https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com/
‘The Iranian Foreign Minister assured the secretary that Iran will allow the safe, unhindered, and expeditious passage through the Strait of Hormuz of Philippine-flagged vessels, energy sources, and all Filipino seafarers,’ said the country in a public statement.
Iran has been playing favourites, allowing vessels from India, Pakistan, Russia, India, Iraq, Thailand, Malaysia, and China through essentially creating a new diplomatic power structure by using the Strait of Hormuz as leverage.
There is a genuine fear that if freedom of navigation is not guaranteed through military action, China could end up as the chief negotiator of global oil supply via its relationship with Iran. That is not an eventuality the US is likely to tolerate.
Gulf states, meanwhile, are looking at constructing new pipelines to remove themselves from Iranian blackmail.
While costly and difficult to construct, they appear infinitely preferable to the whims of a terror-oriented Iran. This comes as the East-West pipeline, built to navigate the Iran-Iraq conflict, has proven its value in recent weeks by delivering oil directly to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.
Will Europe talk the Strait of Hormuz open? Will China cut a deal with Iran extorting hefty tolls from Western ships? Will Trump and Israel beat the Iranian leadership into submission? Will Iran be cut out of the global oil market by its neighbours?
The answer is unlikely to come within the President’s two-week estimation.
