It was assumed Former Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce would take the lead position on the New South Wales Senate ticket instead of repeating the mistakes of Craig Kelly.
Readers will remember that Kelly left the Liberal Party and sat on the crossbench as an independent before running for his Lower House seat of Hughes on the United Australia Party ticket. And lost.
This is significant, because he was a favourite to win if you listened to his large supporter base on social media. The obvious weakness being that many of these people did not live in Hughes.
His primary vote came in fourth at 7.4%, behind the Liberal Party (43.5%), Labor Party (22.5%), and independent Georgia Steele (14.3%). This was unwinnable anyway, but preferencing makes it very difficult for a minor party to win a Lower House seat if major parties organise their preferences against them.
However, the Senate seems to benefit from preferencing, where voters are more inclined to put a ‘check and balance’ candidate on their ballot in defiance of major party suggestions.
Could Kelly have won an Upper House seat? Maybe. Some have argued that standing for One Nation could have made the difference (he briefly served as their federal campaign director). He did eventually move to the Libertarian Party and stand as their lead NSW Senate candidate for the 2025 election, but this is not a good comparison with the Libertarians returning a small vote pretty much everywhere even when running a joint ticket with another party.
Barnaby Joyce and One Nation would be aware that they have a set amount of political mileage to use wisely.
Joyce is a secure Upper House ticket with One Nation polling in the high 20s.
But he could do some real damage to the political sanity of Canberra if he were to win a Lower House seat outright under the One Nation banner.
The Nationals, in particular, would hate this.
South Australia’s election results, and the massive shift in conservative voting patterns across the country, suggest that a Joyce victory is not only possible, it is likely.
There are lots of domestic reasons for this in New England as well, so it is no surprise that we hear Joyce hint at his intention to re-contest the seat.
Joyce told the media:
‘If it looks like we’re going to get … a reasonable number of House of Representatives seats, then the party will no doubt make the request that I stand for New England.’
He added:
‘We have to have to have some oversight and some process to make sure we look like a professional, diligent outfit in the House of Representatives. If that is not the case, then we continue with Plan A, which is stand for the Senate.’
One Nation has the problem the Coalition wishes it had, in that its membership base is growing so rapidly they are having trouble keeping up with the sheer volume of requests. This has led to a major influx of political hopefuls coming straight out of the ‘real world’ instead of the revolving door of ‘staffers’ common to major parties.
And while fresh blood requires additional training it seems, at least for now, the general public is willing to give One Nation breathing room. At least it’s a genuine change, they reason.
Joyce appears to be as superstitious as I am, saying he would ‘never be so proud and hubristic’ to speculate on seats for the 2028 election.
Two years is a long time in an industry where an afternoon can ruin a career.
However, it is a significant comment from a man who used to hold the second most powerful political role in the nation and should not be overlooked.
Flat White is written by Alexandra Marshall. If you would like to support her work, shout her a coffee over at donor-box.
