If publicly available political polling stinks – and it does both in Australia and in the case of the US Presidential election – what numbers can we turn to for a more objective look at possible trends? 

The answer in politics is as in business and households: follow the money.  

While there is no established direct causation between campaign finance and guaranteed electoral success, and we can argue the toss in terms of Clive Palmer’s $60 million in ads at the last Federal election or Michael Bloomberg’s blown billion, money does provide some insight on things like a campaign’s confidence and capacity.