I’m not Daniel Andrews. I’m not Jacinta Allan. It’s surprising these declarations weren’t followed up with, I’m not Labor!
For months, Victorian Labor stewed in an unwinnable polling position. A remarkable achievement, considering their opposition, the Liberal Party, spent most of this time tearing expensive strips off itself with internal legal disputes.
Voters made it clear to pollsters that they were fed up with Labor. They wanted something new. Even if the alternative seemed a bit shaky.
We call this the pitchfork-era of politics.
It’s that time in a government’s life where slogans stop working and policies are viewed with suspicion.
The revolutionary air makes people brave enough to try a different party.
Then, instead of a new government, Ben Carroll stepped in to offer a ‘big reset’ and ‘new’ Labor Party.
This is a dangerous mix for the Coalition, who remain within striking distance of power. Labor’s (second!) sneaky premier switch offers all the security of the Devil Victorians know mixed in with the promise of retribution for unpleasant parts of the state’s history.
Carroll is the reformer. The hard hand of the ‘law’. The moral reckoning. The political resurrection…
Well, according to social media, which might have fluffed his ego to the point of bruising. The careful swirl of streaked hair, however, would survive any political apocalypse thrown its way.
So far, the most entertaining part of this slightly depressing saga came when Carroll trod on the edges of Daniel Andrews’ legacy by offering to (maybe) scrap his infamous statue.
‘I don’t want to be someone who builds statues of politicians. My statues are to be schools, hospitals, and getting on with the job of building a better Victoria. What I want to do is get to the bottom of it. I think that I need to do due process and due diligence again.’
There’ll be a line at the polling booth to guarantee an empty cement pad.
From Carroll’s position, we might imagine it would be unhelpful to have Daniel Andrews erected to a position of permanence while the party is in the middle of a re-branding exercise. Andrews shouldn’t be surprised or disappointed if this comes to pass. Lots of Pharaohs and rulers had their memorials scrapped by the cash-strapped next generation.
As the weeks drag on, there is a smouldering belief that Labor, as the stronger party, has a better chance of reprimanding the unions than an incoming Liberal Party which would need time to find its feet and face a nightmare of lived-in bureaucracies staffed to the brim with Labor faithful.
Victoria is still a democracy, on paper, but when a party has been in power for a long time the mechanics end up tilted. This is reality. No one should be misled about the enormity of the task facing Jess Wilson if she were to find herself as the next Premier.
That prospect remains uncertain.
With the confetti from Carroll’s ascendancy gathered on the floor, the era of profile pieces has begun. One long feature in The Australia at the end of last week reported Ben Carroll likening his shuffle from Deputy to Leader as a ‘big reset’.
‘From the Big Build to the big reset!’
Reset… Really? It is almost as if Victorians are being asked to believe this Premier is an apparition from a genie rather than the second most powerful politician in the state who oversaw many of the failures he now promises to fix.
Where was he all this time? What’s his excuse for watching on, silently?
The majority of his sales pitch as Premier has been directed at the small business community (well, what’s left of it). They have been utterly gutted by lockdowns, building interruption, ridiculously high taxes, insufferable red tape, and a crime wave linked to migration and soft justice systems.
‘There is no doubt the business community felt that they weren’t being listened to. I want to make it very clear: not only am I going to listen, I’m going to hear them, and I want to work with them. Public, private, coming together for the greater good.’
The greater good.
I hear that repeated, mantra-style, like the circle of farm-tool-wielding neighbourhood watch cultists from Hot Fuzz.
It’s always a worry when politicians start talking about the greater good instead of best business practice. The private and public sectors do not belong nestling at the chest of the state. To survive, the private sector requires distance, security, and economic recovery which can only come from the state withdrawing its vampiric fangs.
The business community represents a meaningful percentage of the vote, and they traditionally belong to the Coalition. Holding onto power means luring at least some of them back to the Labor position.
On that note, some voters might be interested in hints of what Carroll described as a sort of mini-budget with a bit of sneaky tax reform. Before the November election? That would be one hell of a stretch. One might even say, an act of desperation.
Voters are always wary of governments that offer tax reform instead of tax cuts.
In any case, if Carroll is interested in helping businesses, they have a very long and demanding list of bugs and errors with the current system. One of the worst is the rise in antisocial behaviour, petty crime, and serious crime.
The machete surrender bins became a meme representing Labor incompetence, but they were also symbolic of the terrifying reality of machete-armed youths roaming the streets, almost untouchable.
Operating a retail business isn’t just economically risky, it is physically dangerous. Meanwhile, Jacinta Allan’s much publicised Work From Home policy has been accused of actively hurting the high street and many in the business community want this reviewed.
Rebuilding the retail economy means putting companies back in brick-and-mortar stores that closed during Covid. It has to be financially competitive to hire staff and sell products in competition with Chinese-owned online businesses and companies such as Amazon.
People can say they want busy, functioning, safe retail strips, but this won’t happen while they shun Australian businesses for cheaper foreign deliveries. The two cannot continue to co-exist and for Victoria, Australian businesses have been the ones to close their doors. Only truly revolutionary tax cuts and employment flexibility can fix this. Whether the unions and treasury would allow such reform is highly debatable. It’s not even clear that the Liberals would attempt it.
? NEW: Ben Carroll leads as preferred premier in the latest Roy Morgan SMS poll for the Victorian state election pic.twitter.com/HxoEYyhZCj
— AusPoll (@AusPoll6) August 8, 2026
The latest poll of voting intention, coming after One Nation’s candidate launch, has Labor gaining ground to sit at 46.5 per cent. This suggests that Victorians are not done with Labor and only they can explain why.
As for conservatives, as predicted, One Nation has taken all of its opening 16 per cent market share from the Coalition, who have fallen to 35.5 per cent.
? NEW: Victoria (state) voting intention
? L/NP: 26% (+2)
? ALP: 26% (+0.5)
? ONP: 23.5% (-1)
? GRN: 12.5% (-1)
⬜️ IND: 8% (-0.5)
⬛️ OTH: 4% (-)Two-party-preferred
? L/NP: 51% (+2)
? ALP: 49% (-2)ALP vs ONP
? ALP: 56% (+2.5)
? ONP: 44% (-2.5)L/NP vs ONP
? L/NP:…— AusPoll (@AusPoll6) August 7, 2026
A different poll from Roy Morgan has Labor and the Coalition tied at 26 per cent, and One Nation not far behind at 23.5 per cent. This would seem to suggest a significant conservative majority in a Labor-held state.
RedBridge is even more enthusiastic about the conservatives, showing the Coalition making gains out of One Nation’s launch.
? NEW: Victoria (state) voting intention
? L/NP: 30% (+4)
? ALP: 23% (-3)
? ONP: 22% (-5)
? GRN: 14% (+1)
⬛️ OTH: 11% (+3)Two-party-preferred
? L/NP: 57% (+3)
? ALP: 43% (-3)RedBridge/Accent | 28 Jul-1 Aug | n=1014 | +/- 17-28 Jun
— AusPoll (@AusPoll6) August 5, 2026
Though encouraging for conservative voters, the problem with polls that vary so wildly is that you end up back to blind guesswork.
How will Victorians vote in November? This is one of the most difficult questions in politics.
