The episode at RAF Fairford in September, when five men were arrested near the perimeter of the airbase, initially on suspicion of offences under the Explosives Act 1875 and the Terrorism Act 2005, remains mysterious. All five were released on bail the following day, as were two more people arrested later. Prime Minister Andy Burnham said there were, ‘strong indications that Iran played a part in what happened’. The Iranian embassy in London denied any involvement (but they would say that, wouldn’t they). It is still unclear exactly what did happen.
It is becoming clearer and clearer that Iran is considering the option of striking at American bases in the United Kingdom
A week later, the United States Air Force (USAF) moved its Rockwell B-1 Lancer heavy bombers – believed to be about a dozen – which had been at RAF Fairford back to their home bases in the United States. These are likely to have been Dyess Air Force Base in Texas, where the 7th Bomb Wing is based, or Ellsworth AFB in South Dakota, home of the 28th Bomb Wing.
It now transpires that Monday this week saw the departure of at least ten USAF Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker refuelling aircraft from RAF Mildenhall in Suffolk. One, belonging to the Nebraska Air National Guard (probably the 173rd Air Refueling Squadron), flew to Prestwick in Ayrshire, probably on its way back to the United States. Of the others, four are now at Spangdahlem air base and one is at Ramstein air base, both in the Rhineland, and four have relocated to Morón air base, a Spanish facility near Seville which is shared with the United States
The obvious conclusion is that the two deployments are somehow linked, that a credible threat not yet made public has been identified against American air assets, and the swiftest and surest protective measure was to move the aircraft elsewhere. A US official has said that this is a ‘temporary relocation’ but there is no further information forthcoming from the Department of Defense.
American news outlets are reporting that there was a credible threat to RAF Mildenhall by Iran. The United States Intelligence Community is said to have found a wide range of ‘varied, extensive and specific’ potential actions against American forces being discussed. These include not only targeting US military bases in Britain but assassination plots and targets within the United States.
The security threat level at RAF Mildenhall and at RAF Lakenheath five miles to the north-east, where the USAF’s 48th Fighter Wing is based, has been elevated to FPCON Charlie (FPCON is ‘Force Protection Condition’). This is the second highest level in the DoD’s categorisation, below FPCON Delta, and indicates that ‘intelligence is received indicating some form of terrorist action or targeting against personnel or facilities is likely’.
There was an interesting but almost imperceptible evasion when Downing Street spokespeople were asked if the bases were still secure:
‘The protection of our bases, both in the UK and across the world, is a top priority, we work closely with the police and our allies to protect our sites.’
That is not quite an answer to the question. If you ask a chess player if he will win a game, you would notice if he responded by saying he is 100 per cent committed to winning and that winning is at the top of his agenda. Outward overcertainty hints at internal doubt.
If we think about the situation theoretically, nothing about it should surprise us, though we can still permit ourselves a degree of anxiety. For eight and a half months, the United States and Israel have been at war with Iran, and the cost for Iran has been punishing: its Supreme Leader, chief of the general staff, minister and two deputy ministers of defence, minister and three deputy ministers of intelligence, commander-in-chief and deputy commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, secretary of the Iranian Defence Council and secretary and deputy secretary of the Supreme National Security Council have all been killed.
Between 80 and 90 per cent of Iran’s ballistic missile, drone and defence industrial infrastructure has been destroyed or severely damaged, as has 80 per cent of its air defence capabilities, 90 per cent of its maritime fleet and 50 or 51 major military bases.
Yet Iran is still in the fight, something which seems to baffle and exasperate President Trump and his advisers. The most significant capabilities left to the Islamic Republic now are asymmetric: attacks by missiles and fast boats on shipping in the Gulf, missile launches at populated areas of neighbouring countries and drone strikes at US military installations.
A report by the Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament on Iran published in July 2025 noted that ‘Iran has a high appetite for risk when conducting offensive activity, which means it poses a dynamic and erratic threat.’ That is all the more true now it faces a potentially existential threat.
Although the UK has not actively participated in the current conflict, the previous Prime Minister belatedly agreed that US forces could use joint UK/US facilities like Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia in the British Indian Ocean Territory as well as bases like RAF Fairford, RAF Mildenhall and RAF Lakenheath in the UK, for ‘defensive operations’ (a meaningless label). For Tehran, that is enough to put us in the firing line.
According to the ISC, ‘Iran’s leadership perceives the UK as a significant adversary, and one which poses a military and intelligence threat in the Middle East.’ We have featured in Iran’s demonology ever since the 1953 coup which overthrew prime minister Mohammad Mosaddegh, in which we were intimately involved.
It is becoming clearer and clearer that Iran is considering the option of striking at American bases in the United Kingdom. It is hardly surprising as success would represent a double whammy for the regime. The two critical questions which emerge are therefore: does Iran have the capability to carry out offensive operations so far from its own borders, and are we able, in cooperation with the United States, able to provide adequate and robust defence of those sites?
