We are living through a political revolution. The Liberal and National parties are in trouble, One Nation is booming, and Labor is losing support and yet somehow remains the favourite to be re-elected in 2028. It is a boom time for political commentators, opinion pollsters, and fortunetellers.

Amongst all the excitement, the Senate calculation often gets overlooked.

Most commentators are focused on which party will win the next election, which is determined in the House of Representatives (Lower House) but if the winning party actually wants to achieve anything while in power they need to worry about the Senate.

And they should worry.

At this stage, the most likely outcome is that the Greens will control balance of power in the Senate until 2031. The only other realistic outcome is that independents Jacqui Lambie and David Pocock gain the balance of power. In either scenario, even if the Liberals and/or One Nation manage to win the 2028 election, their agenda is likely to be blocked.

Senate calculation

Passing legislation requires the support of 39/76 Senators. As things currently stand Labor has 30 Senators and the Liberal-National opposition have 27 Senators, so neither party has the numbers. When the major parties disagree, then balance of power realistically goes to the 10 Greens Senators to decide the outcome.

Not all Senators are up for reelection in 2028. The continuing Senators include:

14 Labor
12 Liberal-National
6 Green
3 One Nation
1 Independent (Jacqui Lambie)

The territories work a bit differently, with two each from the ACT and NT, and all territory Senators are up for re-election. Based on current polls, it looks like the Liberals Jacinta Price is at risk of losing her seat to One Nation, giving the following result for the territories:

2 Labor
1 One Nation
1 Independent (David Pocock)

The remaining seats are made up of six spots each for the six states. Based on recent polling, the likely results are:

12 Labor
12 One Nation
6 Liberal-National
6 Green

This creates the following totals:

28 Labor
18 Liberal-National
16 One Nation
12 Green
2 Independents (Lambie & Pocock)

If these numbers are correct, then the Greens will retain balance of power, regardless of who wins government. Even a theoretical combined Liberal-National and One Nation government would only have 34 Senators, and so would be five votes short of being able to pass any legislation.

If there is a further 3-4 per cent swing against Labor then they might lose up to three extra seats to either the LNP or One Nation, but even in that scenario the Senate is going to be a mess:

25 Labor
19 Liberal-National
18 One Nation
12 Green
2 Independents (Lambie & Pocock)

Once again, even a combined Liberal-National and One Nation government would be stuck on 37 Senators, which is two short of a majority. This would be the best-case scenario for the right, as they would no longer be reliant on the Greens… but instead they would have to rely on left-leaning independents to get things done, which is a tricky proposition.

Between now and the 2028 election we are going to hear a lot about the Liberal and One Nation plans for Australia. Rightly so. Political parties should outline their plans for the country and their detailed policies. The unspoken part of their policy promises is that they will struggle to get them done until 2031 because it will take that long for them to get control of the Senate. If you want to see political change, be prepared to keep fighting for the long-term.

First published on the Death & Taxes Substack.