Remember at the tail end of June when Andrew Hastie declared war on One Nation only for Pauline Hanson to reply, ‘I don’t think about you at all…’
Wild times.
Somewhere in that media cycle, he called One Nation a ‘rudderless superyacht trying to navigate a dynamic world’ and labelled former Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce ‘one of the key architects of Australia’s disastrous Net Zero policy’.
This is Net Zero policy the Liberals supported and defended to the point of breaking up with the Nationals. Twice.
To my mind, the Nationals always seemed more like hostages to the Liberal green energy agenda, pushed by the moderate faction, but who can know? We are not told exactly how policies are conceived within the Coalition, but I do remember Barnaby grinding his teeth during a few Net Zero announcements.
Regardless, we know how Barnaby feels about it now. And how this contrasts with the Liberals.
Even with the more conservative Angus Taylor as leader, it is not clear how the Liberals’ slightly revised policy regarding targets would change things, meaningfully, on the ground if they were elected. Dropping a target and dismantling the Department of Climate Change are worlds apart.
In my view, it is very difficult to pin hints of hypocrisy on a reformed Barnaby for a policy the Liberals support and many voters despise. What’s the message here? Stick with the Liberals, we still have the policy Barnaby denounced? Don’t worry, we gave up Net Zero targets but kept renewable energy projects and the Paris Agreement which ties us to the targets we don’t have? Did Barnaby do the right thing or the wrong thing by abandoning Net Zero? I’m lost.
This is why I didn’t write about it at the time.
It was all a bit of a mess, including when Hastie said he would ‘rather get taken out in a box than bend the knee to One Nation’. What a weird way to court deserting Liberal voters.
‘I will never surrender to One Nation, and we will do them, and do them slowly.’
Note: this political joke is so old most people under 50 have no idea what it means and those who do require a trigger warning when you drop Paul Keating into the conversation.
In any case, Hastie put himself on a war-footing with One Nation.
Meanwhile, One Nation voiced their intention to go after Hastie’s West Australian seat of Canning at the next federal election. Which is both unremarkable and fair play, considering his seat, like all the rest, will be up for grabs. Labor will be going after it too, although losing to One Nation would probably hurt more. The Liberals certainly seemed to take the loss of Sussan Ley’s Farrer seat pretty hard.
There’s more, but none of this resembles political strategy, it is fumbling.
Anyway, the Member for Canning in Western Australia might get a little taste of his war with One Nation earlier than expected. In a fashion.
Overlapping the Federal Canning seat is the state seat of Secret Harbour.
It is held by Labor MP Paul Papalia, who forms part of the Roger Cook government (which beat the Liberals in another landslide).
While Labor remains popular at a state level, the seat itself experienced a swing that could offer enough movement for One Nation to slip through the door, like they did in Farrer.
This would be tricky. The retiring MP is well-liked and he is leaving for actual family reasons rather than ‘family reasons’. Labor will have local sympathy. With a caveat. Western Australia is the home of Gina Rinehart and One Nation has already made it clear that they will be coming after the state. It is prime territory for a conservative uprising, especially a mining-friendly one.
The politics of today is so far adrift from the last election that it’s almost pointless noting that Secret Harbour attracted an 8.4 per cent primary vote for One Nation. It means nothing.
Labor knows it’s going to be tough to hold onto the seat but remain quietly confident. One Nation has a campaign ready to go and a short-list of candidates. According to The Australian, ‘Mr Caddies said One Nation began planning months ago amid rumours that Mr Papalia would quit before the next state election.’
‘It’s going to be very hard. We are not taking anything for granted. And we know that during a by-election there is heightened debate, there’s increased focus, and we are going to have to fight for our lives on this one,’ said Premier Cook.
Secret Harbour, like Farrer, is a high-value target. If won, it would send a message and act as a beachhead for further elections. And the Liberals could hardly complain if One Nation did win, because a conservative party would be snatching it from the hands of Labor. Isn’t that the point?
One Nation has had a crack at a few by-elections recently in Victoria, New South Wales, and Queensland. It hasn’t won them all, but it did put in a good show. And its performance in the South Australian election unsettled plenty of political watchers who thought they had the Australian people figured out.
On Thursday, the WA Liberals will hold a meeting to decide if there’s any point running in Secret Harbour. While most people expect them to run, it’s strategically tricky. Leaving Labor and One Nation to battle out would save money and save face without changing the current seat tally. However, it would signal weakness. Then again, if they compete and lose to One Nation (never mind Labor), it would confirm that weakness. It would be the equivalent of proving their weapons are blunt.
It doesn’t sound as if the WA Liberal Leader is particularly concerned about the optics, or maybe he’s confident in a victory.
‘I see no reason though, why we wouldn’t be running and running hard,’ said Basil Zempilas.
The One Nation state leader, Rod Caddies, told reporters, ‘They’ve [Labor] been missing in action, and we’re going to sink Labor in Secret Harbour.’
Sink Labor in Secret Harbour is a pretty nice campaign slogan.
LET'S SINK LABOR IN SECRET HARBOUR ???
Labor is an arrogant party that needs to be put in its place. Across Secret Harbour and surrounding suburbs, people are living with rising housing stress and growing homelessness while this government acts like it deserves a gold star.… pic.twitter.com/OWs9man33c
— Hon. Rod Caddies MLC (@RodCaddies) July 7, 2026
I tried looking for a similar meme game for the WA Liberals but they haven’t got one yet. To be fair to Zempilas, he actually uses his social media accounts, unlike the official WA State Liberal account, which has not posted anything since 2024.
Getting on with it for WA… pic.twitter.com/92SAnEeV30
— Basil Zempilas (@BasilZempilas) June 8, 2026
Caddies also hinted that One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson would be brought over to help with the campaign, as happened in Farrer.
The seat might feel abandoned, but probably not by the same margin as Sussan Ley’s seat of Farrer. Keeping in mind that the Liberals were neither in state nor federal power, whereas Labor holds both for Secret Harbour. That tilts the board a little.
What the Secret Harbour by-election will be is an accurate poll for the health of the One Nation vote in Western Australia.
The Premier added, ‘When you’re voting for One Nation, you’re bringing in the chaos of the eastern states to Western Australia. But One Nation simply tries to use the legitimate concerns and create a vision – the vision to blame minorities.’
It’s sort of halfway between Hastie’s ramblings and Clinton’s deploreables.
Both One Nation and the Liberals hinted that they would preference each other over Labor.
This by-election should be about Roger Cook, Basil Zempilas, Rod Caddies, and the local candidates … but something tells me it will also be about Albanese, Hastie, and Hanson.
Alexandra Marshall is an independent writer. If you would like to support her work, shout her a coffee over at donor-box.
