Flat White

Sorry, Twits, but Newspoll doesn't mean the PM's swinging in the breeze

6 April 2021

4:24 PM

6 April 2021

4:24 PM

It’s bad news for the Morrison Government. Australians have turned, almost everywhere. Just look at the figures below.

Interesting poll, hey? There’s just one problem with it. It’s two years old. This is a Gallaxy poll published in the News Corp Sunday papers on April 7, 2019. Six weeks and six days later, on May 18, the Morrison government was returned.

Today’s Newspoll aggregates aren’t good for the government but as the old Galaxy shows, things can change. Polls tend to become more accurate as voting draws nearer and ordinary electors focus more than usual on the issues and what really matters to them.


In this case, the polls shifted over less than seven weeks, delivering the Coalition a victory very few — with honourable exceptions such as The Spectator Australia — had forecast.

A traditional House of Representatives/half-Senate election cannot be held until August 7, in four months’ time, but all the legal and logistical requirements would still be met if the Prime Minister held off until as later as May 21 next year.

In other words, an election could be more than a year away.

Naturally, Newspoll excited the Twits (even though they’re supposed to despise anything in The Australian).  It even sent the hashtag #libspill trending.

Twitter, however, is not the real world — and polls are just a snapshot of a moment in time, a moment that has already gone before they are published.

Scott Morrision is not dead yet.

 

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