As calls for Sir Keir Starmer’s head grow ever louder among Labour MPs, the British Prime Minister is digging his heels in. He has one more card left to play: divide and conquer. While scores of backbenchers are desperate for change at the top, they are completely split on the question of who should take over. Those on the Labour right who have deserted Sir Keir are rallying behind Wes Streeting. The soft left are desperate for the return of Andy Burnham but, short of that, could support bids from Angela Rayner or Ed Miliband. This lack of any consensus works to Starmer’s advantage.
If Streeting accepts the Downing Street challenge, a messy Labour leadership power struggle will ensue
At this morning’s cabinet meeting, instead of heeding demands to set out an “orderly” – Team Burnham – or “swift” – Team Streeting – transition, the Prime Minister played his final hand. He declared that he is here to stay and if the cabinet does not like it, they can formally launch a challenge. In the splendor of the cabinet room, Sir Keir made his final push. He told his top team:
As I said yesterday, I take responsibility for these election results and I take responsibility for delivering the change we promised. The past 48 hours have been destabilizing for government and that has a real economic cost for our country and for families. The Labour party has a process for challenging a leader and that has not been triggered. The country expects us to get on with governing. That is what I am doing and what we must do as a cabinet.
The move is a direct challenge to Streeting. He is currently best placed to make the first move – but desperately wants to avoid doing so. At cabinet he spoke up. But only to discuss policies relating to his department and the impact of the Iran war. If the Health Secretary goes ahead and launches a formal challenge, the powerful soft left caucus of around 100 MPs could unleash chaos. Sources in the faction have already threatened to do whatever it takes to topple a Streeting challenge, and even a Streeting premiership. The thought of ceaseless in-fighting will spook Labour MPs, including those flirting with a public declaration of no confidence in the Prime Minister. It will also strengthen the resolve of those who have called for Starmer to stay – not out of love for his leadership, but out of despair at the prospect of morphing into the Conservative party, addicted to regicide.
If dozens more MPs and, crucially, ministers resign in the coming hours or days, the Prime Minister’s divide-and-conquer strategy could fall apart. Without a viable government, he will be forced to resign. If Streeting accepts the Downing Street challenge, a messy Labour leadership power struggle will ensue. There is an extremely small possibility that the drama of the last 48 hours could put backbenchers back in their box. The No. 10 team are banking on this, but it is unlikely. The ball is now squarely in Streeting’s court.
