Flat White

Market economist confidently predicts direction of white noise process

20 March 2017

1:24 PM

20 March 2017

1:24 PM

Sydney-based market economist Nathan Hadley has  confidently predicted a strong week ahead for pound sterling in the face of overwhelming evidence that shows currency market fluctuations over a five-day trading period are indistinguishable from white noise.

In spite of never having entered a profitable foreign exchange trade on his own behalf, Hadley remains adamant that a series of virtually unforecastable economic releases, central bank announcements and random news flows would see the pound trading firmer by the end of the week.

“We expect the strengthening domestic economic outlook combined with recent better tone in the market will see Sterling challenge the 1.25 level by next Friday”, Hadley told Bloomberg Markets.

When asked about his views on the nine hundred major data releases that would be issued globally over the week ahead, Hadley pointed to his track record of successfully predicting the direction of five out of six UK economic statistics 45 percent of the time.

“That’s excepting for all those occasions on which I positioned the bank’s forecasts at the top or bottom of the market range so I had a better chance at winning the bottle of Dom Pérignon that Reuters provides to the best forecaster each week”, explained Hadley.

In his spare time Hadley blogs obsessively on the dangers of highly refined carbohydrates, the effectiveness of Keynesian economic stimulus and that one time he won a bet over house prices with an academic.

“He’s an okay guy I guess”, said trader Jake Wildman. “He stands in front of the television cameras and makes noise while they focus on the bank’s logo in the background”.

“Jessica the cute blonde in marketing reckons that’s worth a couple of hundred thousand dollars a year in exposure. She says he’s basically a prop.”

Got something to add? Join the discussion and comment below.

Show comments