The Orange Wave is baked-in. One Nation is comfortably sitting at 25 per cent primary vote, leading the Liberal Party as Australia’s unofficial opposition. What was once a ‘protest vote’ is now as much a part of the electoral furniture as the Palestinian protesters on Spring Street.

We are witnessing an extinction level event for the party of Menzies.

The Liberal moderates are noticing that the conservative base upon whom they relied has abandoned them. Fixated upon reclaiming Teal-held seats, they desperately insist One Nation is not to be taken seriously. The media has dragged them to assent to a preference deal, as if having the lesser primary vote equated to bargaining power.

The consequences of this hubris are now manifest within the Victorian Liberals.

Eight state Liberal parliamentarians are retiring, two have lost preselection challenges, and four or more are likely to lose their seats come November. That’s at least 14 out of 32 MPs being replaced: a 40 per cent turnover. Of the remaining, eight (including the Leader) are first-termers.

On top of all this change, the Western Metro preselection has come into disrepute with the party, being hell bent on seeing off Moira Deeming, apparently forgetting to do the most basic of candidate vetting.

If a company had the sort of turnover and interpersonal issues as the Liberals, no one would ever apply. And it’s not just the seats with high turnover, the portfolios are readily passed around too.

In the last four years, the Opposition has reshuffled shadow portfolios just as many times. Planning has changed hands four times. Education, Transport, Treasury, Environment, and Small Business have changed three times each. Attorney General, Police, Energy, and Trade twice. Even more worrying is that the portfolios of Small Business, Attorney-General, Environment, and Planning are all currently held by MPs who’ve only had them since November 2025.

With so much turnover in personnel and responsibilities, the illusion of progress is being projected to voters.

‘A fresh start for Victoria!’

Nothing could be further from the truth.

When a reshuffle happens, the toxicity of the party room precludes most forms of handover between colleagues. Every incoming Shadow Minister and their staff has to pick up the pieces and start again. This might be what they call a ‘fresh’ start.

I’ve spoken to ex-advisers and their depiction is bleak. Tax policies from Pesutto’s Shadow Cabinet are still sitting in other offices gathering dust, being pushed aside by incoming Shadow Treasurers. For example, the new Shadow Minister for Education and his staff have had four months to juggle responsibilities and the new brief. Policy doesn’t come out of thin air; someone has to write it.

Each Opposition MP, whether Shadow Ministry or not, has 2.5 full-time staff. Their Electorate Office and Communications budget might stretch to another two full-time equivalents if spent entirely on staff, which most don’t do. An office of three people, at best, has to organise the calendar, accompany meetings, take notes, sort constituent inquiries, plan events and school visits, submit reimbursements, draft letters to ministers and, on top of all that, write policy. There isn’t much time for blue sky ideas.

In full damage control, Liberal politicos and their conduits in the media have resorted to what many feel is blatant disinformation by declaring that One Nation apparently hasn’t a policy on offer for voters. A simple perusal of the policy sections on each party’s website reveals the reality.

One Nation’s Victorian party currently has 12 policy platforms, many with concrete numbers and more to be announced with costings from the budget office. Jess Wilson’s Liberal leadership has offered just four policies. Her party platform cites vague promises like, ‘By controlling government waste and repairing the Budget, [we] will be able to reduce taxes for Victorians.’

Every election cycle the Liberals, in fear of saying something, eventually say anything… Expect the inevitable election habit of buckshot policy aimed to hit any, or every, voter group. Remember in 2018, punters were told the Liberals were committing $40 million for 40 per cent rebates on energy-efficient refrigerators and 50 per cent off plasma TVs to ‘lower the cost of living’?

Voters were desperate for a real reason to vote for the liberals, but it never came.

Now, the new kid in town has done something the Liberals never could: made a clear and concise pitch to the electorate. One Nation has promised it will lower immigration, make housing (yes, housing, not dox boxes) more affordable, and once more breathe the life of national pride into our youth by giving them a real stake in our country’s future.

The cause of the Liberals’ political shortsightedness is straightforward. There’s a group of MPs who’ve been in Parliament since the Baillieu-Napthine government, whether as MPs or staffers. They were only there for a hot minute, but in their minds it’s just a matter of time until that changes. If they wait it out, weathering the internal storm, one of them will become Attorney General, Treasurer, or even Premier. They are the ones who sit silently while a real conservative was crucified over the weekend. These MPs, along with that mentality, should be retired.

The electoral mathematics are straightforward. At 15 per cent primary, One Nation may win three to five lower house seats and five to six upper house positions. At 20 per cent primary, up to nine MLAs and ten MLCs. At 25 per cent, a bloodbath. The conservative vote isn’t being split as the complaints go, rather it’s being redirected to a conservative party instead of one that hardly pays conservatism lip service whilst chasing inner-city progressives.

My desire for One Nation in Victoria is also straightforward: no preference deals. Every MP should be judged on their performance and accordingly put last on the ONP ballot. Long-held seats will change hands and long-term MPs on both sides will be removed. Yes, it creates chaos on polling day, but that is exactly the intention. We should not shy away from the fact that this is in part about disruption. Not a vain and reactive kind, but a disruption that promises to break the grip of complicity and corruption on our state.

By punishing both the awful Labor politicians and gossipy backbiting Liberals alike, One Nation will free this once great State of Victoria from her slumber. A hung Parliament, with One Nation on the cross bench. No parties pretending they have a mandate, and both Labor and Liberal needing to negotiate with the people’s party to pass their petty policy. It’s about time both aisles of parliament were given a wake up call.

Labor may be preferenced in a few Liberal seats, but upstart Liberals and good conservative candidates will get the weight of One Nation’s How-To-Vote behind them in every Labor seat. The purpose of the strategy is not just to change the government, it is to change the whole state for the better.

Victorians want a change. They can have a change, in every single seat.

Then we might hope to embody our state motto once again: Peace and Prosperity.