per leader donning a wetsuit and making his way through a bog, but a political mess that he does not seem to be fully capable of getting out of. At least not in the long term.

Frustration has been growing for a while. There has been an increasing sense that Sir Ed and his advisors were more interested in campaigning and ‘visuals’ than setting a vision and fully capitalising on the 72 MPs he returned to parliament at the last general election.

Now, though, there is open warfare over comments the former business secretary made on the pensions triple lock, seemingly arguing on Radio 4 that the provision helps millennials. Or will do. Eventually. Sky News has revealed, and I have confirmed, that this line is in direct opposition to the party’s own policy briefing document.

First, over the top was Tom Gordon. The MP for Harrogate and Knaresborough issued a strong repudiation of his leader on Twitter, saying that he had ‘missed the point’.

Nobody is suggesting Sir Ed Davey should walk the plank immediately

The problem goes beyond one garbled line, though. There are now open concerns about Sir Ed’s leadership. ‘Leadership is about bringing people with you, not dragging them behind,’ Gordon told me. ‘We should be empowering our MPs and spokespeople – giving them, and the party, a clear, bold, liberal vision to go out and make the case for.’ Overall, he believes that:

We should be doing better than we currently are in the polls, there is a massive gap and we’ve got to fill it. That relies on us having a positive vision, saying what we are for, not just what we are against.

Gordon has publicly raised issues about his leader before, but he is not the only one with worries. I have been hearing about them for months at all levels of the party. A crunch point is likely to come after next spring’s local elections. One MP, currently loyal to the leadership, told me: ‘If we go backwards in May, then Ed is finished.’ The same would be true if there were a snap general election.

Away from voters, one of the big concerns is the internal party culture that those around Sir Ed have allowed to develop. I’ve heard the word ‘toxic’ used.

It got so bad that earlier this year that, in the spring, Sir Ed was told that things had to change or else he would face a vote of no confidence. This included removing senior figures from his office and ending the stunts for which he has become (in)famous.

Rhiannon Leamen, Sir Ed’s chief of staff for over seven years, was nominated for a peerage late last year, becoming Baroness Leaman of Chipping Sodbury in February of this year. She left the Lib Dem leader’s office in August. Baroness Leaman was replaced by former campaigns director Ruth Younger, who the MPs I spoke to seem to find a more amenable figure.

To be clear, from the conversations I have had, nobody is suggesting Sir Ed Davey should walk the plank immediately. He’d probably only turn into a photo opportunity, anyway. However, there is sufficient bad blood around, caused by messy reshuffles and a perceived lack of vision or progress, that it does seem like it is a question of when, rather than if, he is to be defenestrated.

Sir Ed is hanging on for the moment for a variety of reasons. Firstly, both he and his party had a decent conference. The feeling is that they left Brighton in a stronger position than when they arrived. The second is the lack of a clear successor. Economics spokesperson Daisy Cooper seems to be an obvious candidate for the gig, but is also seen as somewhat ‘continuity Davey’.

Party president Josh Babarinde is also on the radar. However, he is one of 57 of the current 72 Lib Dem MPs who only arrived in Westminster at the last election. Two years is simply not enough time to learn the skills required of a leader of a national political party, whatever their talents may be.

Furthermore, polling does not currently suggest that bad leadership is putting MPs at risk. The latest MRP from YouGov said an election would return 71 Lib Dems to the green benches. ‘Our party is in an incredibly strong position,’ insists a Lib Dem spokesperson:

Under Ed’s leadership we had our best result for a century and achieved a record-breaking streak of remarkable local election results. That is because Ed is focused on issues that really matter, the cost-of-living crisis and the health service, he also has a plan to fix our broken politics.

None of this means that everyone is getting in line, with a number joining Tom Gordon in criticising Davey’s line on the triple lock. Furthermore, internal elections are being used to put ‘anti-leadership’ figures in positions of power – for instance, as chair of the parliamentary party. Roz Savage won this role uncontested and has also been publicly critical of Sir Ed.

This is playing out in selections, too. In London, activist Rob Blackie and Richmond Park MP Sarah Olney both want to be nominated as the party’s candidate for mayor. Olney is seen as the leadership’s candidate, while Blackie is more of an outsider, despite having run for the London mayoralty before.

Ultimately, it seems that the next time Brits go to the polls, whether that be at a local level or even a snap general election, Sir Ed Davey’s time as Liberal Democrat leader will be over.