And so it is that another unpopular leader has lost the confidence of their party, was summarily rolled by a rival, and blew out of a lengthy political career with laments about gender politics.
Describing herself as ‘a daughter of Bendigo, a daughter of workers, a proud Labor woman’, former Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan was also a walking disaster for the state and ultimately unable to rescue Labor’s reputation from the Daniel Andrews’ years.
Conservatives will spot the parallel to recently departed Federal Liberal Leader Sussan Ley, whose 24 years in office ended with a strange ‘listening tour’, two Coalition splits, dissenting peers, and the loss of an historic Liberal seat to One Nation. Ley was replaced in an act of emergency surgery to stabilise polls. In hindsight, it could be argued that had Ley moved to the backbench and retired later, the backlash in Farrer might not have become an orange beachhead.
In Victoria, Jacinta Allan announced her retirement shortly after Ben Carroll took the premiership, but she will wait it out until the November election.
Say what you like about Labor, but they are party-disciplined. The ‘greater good’, and all that.
There are many reasons why Allan may have chosen to retire. Perhaps she’s sick of the high-pressure job, wants to do something else, made a few enemies, or wasn’t going to be re-endorsed. Worse, she might have seen the polls that suggest Bendigo East could be lost to a conservative. We’ll never know.
‘Still believing in equality. Still believing in public education and public health. Still believing in the dignity of work. Still believing government can, and must, make people’s lives better…’
It is fascinating listening to her exit speech. Politicians speak as though they are in some kind of existential fight. The reason these phrases feel empty is because the things mentioned have been stable and guaranteed for decades. These are words of total disconnect.
The people of Victoria are not in a battle for last century’s campaign slogans.
They are fighting to survive against brand new problems created directly by the Labor government and its various leaders, often under pressure from unhinged activist movements.
While Daniel Andrews might shoulder a sizeable chunk of that blame, Allan played her part, and so did her replacement.
Labor is busy changing its branding, but it has done nothing about the message.
The red tape, green tape, and black tape have grown so tangled that the businesses which survived Covid have been left marooned in an economy that has no idea how to function. Melbourne is a permanent taxpayer-funded construction site. Unstable migration has left the streets crime-ridden and dysfunctional. A point accented by blue machete-surrender bins. Woke politics which, let’s be honest, is just Marxism wearing rainbow gloves, has its fist raised in the faces of the working class. And as for race politics, parallel racial political systems have been established at great cost and in outright defiance of the public will.
It is as though the state has been taken hostage by vandals and the only authority around is the Coalition. They bumble onto screen as the equivalent of the old baton-waving British copper. But if that’s all that’s on offer … sobeit.
Victoria doesn’t just need a way to pay off its debts and bring the unions under control, someone has to present a rescue package to salvage the minority of individuals who contribute to the state, rather than living off it.
With a staggering number of Victorians employed by the state, receiving welfare, or living with someone who is, there is very little democratic will to face reality and start transitioning to the private sector. Raising taxes isn’t going to fix anything. All it will achieve is the murder of productivity. Whoever takes charge will have to be bold about deliberately benefiting private businesses that hire locals. Sure, Ben Carroll is courting corporate Victoria with a delay on Jacinta Allan’s divisive Work From Home policy, but that is hardly a capitalist revolution. At best, it is a tentative promise to maintain the barely-survivable status quo for a few more months.
As for the wild card of One Nation, they are carrying hopes and dreams rather than tangible promises. They have a policy page set up, but it remains blank. Their news items suggest a strong focus on supporting regional victory, particularly against renewable energy roll-outs and other anti-farmer legislation. They may end up doing well in these areas. Although it must be said, polls softened dramatically against One Nation when they transitioned from theoretical to actual. Perhaps Victorians were expecting a higher profile lead candidate. Maybe they’ll warm up as the weeks drag on.
If the polls following One Nation’s candidates are anything to go by, Ben Carroll has received a slight (but winnable) advantage from having two conservative parties on the right. The numbers say the Coalition and One Nation should enter into a three-way coalition but reality says they’ll be lucky to make it beyond a non-aggression pact involving how-to-vote cards.
If the Coalition maintain a leading position, One Nation preferences will naturally flow their way and Labor’s new Premier will be a brief historical footnote.
What we can say is that Labor is out of tricks.
There are no more seats to shuffle. No more inquires to call. No more hands to smack. And no time left to change the tune.
The future of Victoria will largely rely on Liberal Leader Jess Wilson’s ability to shake off her moderate-leaning reputation and stick herself a little closer to the populist right where the bulk of Victorian conservatives feel comfortable.
And the party will have to put its civil war on hold.
Victoria has been red for a very long time. Does it have the guts to turn blue?
