Australian politics has become a battlefield of byelections. Last weekend, the NSW Farrer byelection – won by One Nation’s David Farley – has made our point. The Liberal Party must be reformed or collapse.

Watching the heart of Menzies pump orange blood has been difficult for the Angus Taylor leadership. Rightly so.

Founded by Sir Robert Menzies in 1944, the Liberal Party was built as a member-driven, broad-appeal movement. In my view, it is now a delegate fiefdom out of touch with the base.

The dysfunction is not theoretical.

Members are leaving in large numbers. Those who remain are typically in a 70+ age bracket. Grassroots branches are being hollowed out. Entire electorates are struggling to function. And there are hardly enough members to run an electoral campaign – even for a small seat.

The Stafford byelection in Queensland on Saturday could restore hope to the LNP and patch up its tarnished brand. Historically a ‘safe’ Labor seat left vacant by the death of former Labor MP Jimmy Sullivan, it would ordinarily be considered unwinnable for the LNP.

But if Farrer has taught the major parties anything, it’s that the definition of a ‘safe’ seat has shifted and – critically – the working class is no longer a guaranteed Labor vote.

It was also a warning that an LNP aligned one inch to the right of Labor (or a left-wing independent) is not going to cut it when voters are miles from this cultural position. Especially not now One Nation is offering exactly what they want.

State Premier David Crisafulli is the LNP’s most powerful and influential political figure.

His popularity rivals that of former Liberal Prime Ministers and when it comes to critical electoral topics – public safety, crime, and fuel security – he is miles ahead of Labor.

But that does not mean his leadership is safe, or that it will survive another election.

Crisafulli is very lucky that One Nation is not contesting Stafford, because if they were, there’s a good chance Pauline Hanson would romp the victory home after the disaffected working class were abandoned by Albanese’s Budget.

Indeed, this is a chance for the LNP to make some gains within a new voting base.

Jim Chalmers’ appalling Budget particularly harms the hard-working economic band of Queensland. To that end, Crisafulli has managed to mobilise campaign volunteers from surrounding electorates and council offices and put them in Stafford. Well done. However, this won’t be replicated at a general election when 94 campaigns have to be mounted in unison. You’d need 15,000 active party members, at least, to survive.

With only two Liberal governments remaining in the country, Queensland and Tasmania, it is critical that the LNP reassert its message on Saturday in Stafford.

Their performance in this seat could have a flow-on effect for the Victorian state election, where the Liberals will attempt to dislodge the widely condemned economic record of Jacinta Allan. They will do so under the spectre of One Nation, which has pledged to vigorously contest every seat it can find.

While Crisafulli has demonstrated strong leadership, that is not the whole answer.

Party reform is critical – but it is being fiercely resisted.

Those in power want to stay in power, rather than trusting their membership.

This is why Heath Goddard and I are stepping up.

As founders of the Liberal Reform Association, we have decided to run for Vice President and President of the Queensland LNP to force upon the party the reforms which existing delegates refuse to deliver.

If we don’t succeed, and the proposed reforms are rejected by the delegates, we’ll have no choice but to start a genuine member-run Menzies Liberal Party – one that Menzies would proudly lead if he were alive today – because it will be driven by what the members want and what the 60 per cent of culturally conservative voters of Australia want.

Remember, Menzies wanted the members to have power.

Those Liberals who like to quote Menzies, seem to have forgotten this.

The Queensland LNP must, in our view, abolish the delegate-appointing-delegate system and reconnect with working Australians. They need to put forward policies the members want. This includes things like getting bureaucracy out of the health system, ending the indoctrination of our children, and to stop forcing workers to join unions they hate. They must also confront the alleged thuggery of the CFMEU. If the LNP do not face these cultural issues head-on, they will suffer the consequences at the ballot box.

Stafford is a warning wrapped in a potential win. Stafford is a working class, family-centred seat.

Labor assumes it is safe and, as the Liberals did in Farrer, have largely neglected it. It is future One Nation territory – but Pauline is not running. Lucky for Crisafulli. One Nation is the biggest threat to the LNP, not Labor. They are drafting clear, culturally-aligned policies for workers and their membership ranks are swollen with young, energetic people.

Health, education, and industrial relations are the most important policies going forward. If Crisafulli wishes his leadership to survive, he must be better at managing Labor policy than Labor. More than that, many of these institutions must be overhauled.

Crisafulli has had cultural issues thrust upon him at the Stafford byelection – and he has handled them well and added in a few of his own, including leading the way on fuel security and drilling. He must continue to push forward on cultural issues before Pauline steals the message. These include the big issues: health, education, and the construction industry. He must do this. If he doesn’t, Pauline will and she is very good at it.

Stafford voters are economically practical, culturally grounded, and focused on real issues that impact their families.

Crisafulli cannot continue avoiding cultural issues. Certainly not with One Nation and Labor playing them to their advantage. The Premier would be wise to get in and define the debate before One Nation pegs out the battlefield. In other words, he needs to get in front of Pauline now by doing what his members want before it’s too late.

Heath Goddard, Matthew Rowan, and myself formed the Liberal Reform Association in November last year because we believe the continuation of the status quo behind the scenes of the LNP will prove fatal.

Menzies’ great project delivered excellent governments for Australia spanning over 80 years – but his ideology has run off the rails, swerved to left, and refused to take sides in key cultural issues that everyone reading is well acquainted with.

Crisfafulli has been magnificent, recruiting a big and vibrant campaign crew. He was prepared to act if luck came his way – and lo and behold it certainly did.

Labor were overconfident and careless with their cultural base. It’s not a good look.

Heath and I want the LNP to rise to the political challenge and embrace cultural politics before Pauline has the chance to turn election promises into a landslide.

The Menzies tradition can revive the LNP and Liberal parties around Australia.

Because if the Liberal Party does not reform itself, voters will not wait. That was the lesson from Farrer. They will simply continue to replace it, and if that continues, rebuilding will not be possible.