Why do politicians so l often make decisions based not on judgement but on computer modelling?
This is notwithstanding the telling observation attributed to the great Anglo-American statistician, Professor George E. P. Box, “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” It’s like all those pundits and commentators who were sure that based on faulty polls, Bill Shorten would win the last Federal election.
It was none other than the National Cabinet which imposed the lockdown disaster on Australia as the response to the Wuhan virus on the basis of modelling similar to the exaggerations which had constantly emerged from University College London. It was to ‘flatten the curve’ — in other words, to ensure the hospitals could cope. No one pretended then they could wipe out the Wuhan virus, which without effective vaccination they cannot.
It even contained a manifest error, a daily need for 35,000 intensive care units. No one on the National Cabinet nor any one of their armies of advisers noticed this. Although the modelling was foolishly and unjustifiably kept secret, it took the persistence of an academic for government to admit this error.
The fact is that keeping the virus away from Australia was never going to be difficult for a remote island. Yet the politicians failed to follow what was obvious at the time. All they needed to do was follow world’s best practice. This was by Taiwan, a country awake to the communists in Beijing.
Although next door to Communist China and with a similar population to ours, they have had seven deaths so far and most importantly, no lockdown. In not following Taiwan’s world’s best practice, Australia has had about 130 times the number of deaths in Taiwan. Over 900 Australians have died because our politicians did not follow world’s best practice.
Being more remote than Taiwan, we should have had far fewer deaths and no lockdown .
In addition, vast numbers of businesses have been seriously damaged or destroyed, with people everywhere losing their jobs. People have not even been allowed to say farewell as their parents died. Enormous debt is to be imposed on the next generation.
Now at Christmas 2020, we have an outbreak on Sydney’s northern beaches, with the typical knee- jerk reaction of our politicians who are behaving like dictators.
Taiwan worked out long ago how to control entry including entry by those which have only now dawned on our politicians now, airline crews and diplomats.
So why didn’t our politicians check out and follow world’s best practice, Taiwan’s?
Is it because the communists insist that Taiwan be treated as a leper? Running the WHO, the communists even ensured Taiwan lost observer status there. Referring the investigation of the origins of the virus and Beijing’s failure to warn other countries to the WHO was pointless.
Why are the communists so influential over our politicians and other elites, and not only Australia’s? The only significant leader who has stood up to them is Donald Trump.
Australia’s political class is consistent. Over the years they dismantled manufacturing and sent those jobs and businesses overseas, more often than not to Communist China. They allowed them to take over many of our best assets — including our farms, mines, and water, even strategic assets such as ports.
The very people who claim greater wisdom than the rank-and-file have been the ones who have made us so dependent on Beijing.
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