Three years ago today, the military in Burma (or Myanmar, as the junta prefers to call it) plunged the country back into hell. On 1 February 2021, Burma’s army, led by commander-in-chief General Min Aung Hlaing, seized power in a coup. After a decade of apparent liberalisation, which saw political prisoners released, space for civil society and independent media open up and democratic elections held, the clock was turned back on the country by more than ten years.

Hlain’s army overthrew the democratically-elected civilian government of Aung San Suu Kyi, throwing her and many of her ministers and parliamentarians in jail. They also arrested thousands of activists and journalists and unleashed one of the most severe military offensives the country had ever faced, even after seven decades of civil war.

The military is committing barbaric atrocity crimes at a level of intensity not previously seen

Aung San Suu Kyi, who should now be approaching the end of her second term in government, instead languishes in prison. She is denied access to her family, friends and the international community. Concerns about her health last year were met with refusal by the junta to allow her medical treatment outside prison.

The 78 year-old Nobel Peace Prize Laureate led Burma’s democracy movement for almost a quarter of a century before being elected to government in 2015. She won a massive re-election victory in November 2020, but the personal ambitions of Min Aung Hlaing and the military’s paranoia about protecting its interests led to an action on their part to unravel a decade of opening and return Burma to pariah status in the eyes of the world.

Under the constitution, drafted by the military in 2008, the key ministries of defence, border affairs and home affairs were still controlled by the armed forces in a power-sharing arrangement with the civilian-led government. A quarter of the seats in Burma’s parliament were reserved for them. But somehow that was not enough for Min Aung Hlaing.

Some of the earliest footage of the coup’s beginnings showed the surreal and almost comical scene of army trucks moving down empty highway lanes in the capital, Naypyidaw, in the background of an exercise video being filmed by a fitness instructor. But there is nothing remotely laughable about the consequences of the coup for the people of Burma.

According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP), there are now nearly 20,000 political prisoners in Burma today. At least 4,474 people have been killed since the coup. A total of 158 people have been sentenced to death by military courts and at least four have been executed – including people I personally knew.

The United Nations (UN) reports that over two million people have been displaced within Myanmar since the coup – the real figure is likely to be even higher. Thousands have fled as refugees into neighbouring countries. A UN report late last year presented 22 documented incidents of mass killings, the burning of entire villages, and over 687 airstrikes against civilians between April 2022 and July 2023 alone. Over 75,000 houses and other buildings burnt since the coup across 106 townships in 12 states and regions.

The humanitarian crisis is desperate. Half the population lives in poverty. As many as 18.6 million people are in urgent need of assistance.

The military has unleashed a campaign of airstrikes against civilians with unprecedented scale and severity. They are also committing barbaric atrocity crimes at a level of intensity not previously seen. The junta’s crimes against civilians include, according to UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk, include ‘burning them alive, dismembering, raping, beheading, bludgeoning’ and ‘using abducted villagers’ as human minesweepers. ‘Inhumanity in its vilest form,’ as Mr Turk described it.

The UN Special Rapporteur on Burma, former US Congressman Tom Andrews, has repeatedly urged to world to act. ‘There is no time to waste,’ he said late last year. Although international attention is understandably focused on other crises – not least the crisis in Israel and Gaza, and Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine – Burma must not be ignored.

The good news is that in recent months the military has found itself on the back foot as the armed opposition movement has gained ground. Since October last year, dozens of towns, many in strategically important locations including key trading posts along Burma’s borders, have fallen to the opposition. The military is struggling to recruit troops – and faces growing frustration among the ranks. Tens of thousands of soldiers have deserted, defected or simply refused to fight. Last year the pro-democracy shadow National Unity Government (NUG) claimed that at least 15,000 soldiers and police officers had joined the civil disobedience movement (CDM) since the coup.

For the first time since the coup, Burmese friends of mine and respected Burma experts are talking seriously about the possibility of the military regime collapsing. There is a realistic chance of righting the appalling wrong of the coup and helping Burma onto a better path, towards genuine democracy and true peace. Andrews says ‘the writing is on the wall for the illegal military junta’.

But the international community has to step up and seize the moment. It must cut block support to the junta and provide a lifeline to the people. This means increasing efforts to stop the flows of funds, fuel and arms that keep the regime alive and enable it to bomb and kill its people. We should be adding further targeted sanctions against the military’s businesses, blocking every avenue for the regime to import aviation fuel, and increasing pressure for the enforcement of a global arms embargo.

This means providing cross-border humanitarian support, to reach those most in need who cannot be reached from inside Burma. It also means engaging with the pro-democracy and ethnic resistance groups. As Andrews told the UN, ‘now, more than ever, the international community should be working with them to help lay the foundation for a democratic and rights-respecting country’.

And it should mean preparing to hold the military generals responsible for the atrocity crimes they have committed. A case brought by the Gambia to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for the genocide of the Rohingya minority in Burma is underway, with Britain’s support; other actions have been taken in other jurisdictions to pursue such charges. The UN’s Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar (IIMM) is doing its work, gathering evidence so that one day prosecutions for war crimes and crimes against humanity against so many of Burma’s people could be pursued.

As Britain’s Foreign Secretary, David Cameron is in a position to lead this effort. Given Britain’s history as Burma’s former colonial ruler, we have a moral responsibility to do so. The United Kingdom is the penholder on Burma at the UN, so we ought to be mobilising other member states at the Security Council and the Human Rights Council into urgent action.

There is also a particular personal reason why Lord Cameron should make this a priority. In 2012, as prime minister, he became the first high-profile Western leader to visit Burma following the release of Suu Kyi from house arrest. He then hosted her visit to the UK later that year. The images of him with her in the garden of her home in Rangoon and later at Chequers are seared in my memory.

Cameron owes it to Suu Kyi to at the very least meet her son, Kim Aris, a British citizen, and to seek her release – and the release of every other political prisoner in Burma today. And he owes it to the people of Burma to help them in their hour of need.