Think of the Maldives and you’re likely to conjure up images of expensive honeymoons and golden beaches, but the archipelago is also the focus of an extraordinary spat with India. The Maldives’ high commissioner was summoned by the Indian government last week after three Maldivian deputy ministers published derogatory posts on X/ Twitter, labelling Indian prime minister Narendra Modi a ‘terrorist’, ‘clown’ and ‘puppet of Israel’. One message even compared India to cow dung.

The fallout from this imbroglio has been swift. The trio were suspended and the posts have now been deleted. But India is furious: the hashtags #BoycottMaldives and #ExploreIndianIslands have been trending and there have been reports of a significant drop in holiday bookings. One of India’s largest travel platforms has even suspended flights to the islands ‘indefinitely’. For the tourism-dependent Maldives, the backlash is likely to cost many millions.

It is becoming obvious that India will struggle to match China’s growing influence in the Indian Ocean

Indians, along with Russians, have historically been among the largest contingent of tourists to the Maldives: last year, around 209,000 Indians visited the islands. But now that trend could well change. High-profile Bollywood stars waded into the row, promoting Lakshadweep (an Indian archipelago) as an alternative holiday destination. This is ironic, considering it was Modi’s posts promoting Lakshadweep on X that triggered the offending Maldivian posts in the first instance. But there is more to all this than a mere spat on social media.

The tensions leading up to the row have been simmering in the background ever since November’s Maldivian elections. The victor, president Mohamed Muizzu, campaigned on an ‘India out’ message promising to banish the 75 Indian troops currently stationed on the island and rebalance the archipelago’s trade relations. Soon after winning he said: ‘We don’t want any foreign military boots on Maldivian soil… I promised this to the people of the Maldives and I will live up to my promise from day one’.

His comments marked a stark contrast to those of Muizzu’s predecessor, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who maintained close diplomatic ties with Modi’s India during his five-year tenure. Commenting on this fresh X dispute, Solih said, ‘India has always been a good friend to Maldives, and we must not allow such callous remarks to negatively impact the age-old friendship between our two countries.’ Under his tenure, India had reportedly given in excess of $2 billion (£1.6 billion) in financial aid to the archipelago.

As relations with India have cooled under Muizzu, ties with China have been renewed. Last Monday, Muizzu began a five-day state visit to China; previous Maldivian leaders had typically made it a point to visit India as their first post-election state visit, but not Muizzu: he has now signed 20 or so key agreements with China’s president Xi, and taken steps to intensify trade relations between the two. The warmth between the Maldives and China appears to be mutual: calling Miuzzu an ‘old friend’, Xi declared that ‘China firmly supports the Maldives in safeguarding its national sovereignty, independence and national dignity’.

Muizzu’s state visit will be viewed by Delhi as an embarrassing snub on the global stage, but it’s clear that India’s fallout with the Maldives is splendid news for China. Delhi and Beijing have long considered themselves regional rivals. Although aggressive border skirmishes between Indian and Chinese soldiers at their shared border have come to represent this bitter contest in recent years, this idyllic honeymoon destination has now become an opportunistic extension of the rivalry.

Muizzu has said he will review all the bilateral agreements between India and the Maldives. In December, too, the Maldivian government said they were withdrawing permission for India to collaborate in mapping the seabed in Maldivian territorial waters.

In an apparent attempt to calm diplomatic tensions, the Maldivian minister for foreign affairs Moosa Zameer posted on X:

The recent remarks against foreign leaders and our close neighbours are unacceptable and do not reflect the official position of the Government of Maldives. We remain committed to fostering a positive and constructive dialogue with all our partners, especially our neighbours, based on mutual respect and understanding.

Zameer’s post did not name India or Modi specifically; this has given rise to speculation as to why. But it is becoming increasingly obvious that India will struggle to match China’s growing influence and ambition in the Indian Ocean. As part of his state visit, Muizzu courted potential Chinese investors at an ‘Invest Maldives’ forum. If Indian troops are indeed removed from the Maldives (a deadline of 15 March has been proposed) that will confirm that the ‘India out’ campaign wasn’t just campaign tactic, but rather a firm commitment to transition to a new pro-China geopolitical future for the sun-kissed island nation.