So Suella Braverman is going to get whacked then. One discerns this from the behaviour of senior ministers sent out on the airwaves this weekend. Grant Shapps rolled out the classic ‘a week is a long time in politics’ gambit when asked if the Home Secretary would still be in post next weekend. Veterans’ minister Johnny Mercer expressed his frustration that rows connected with Braverman had distracted from Remembrance ceremonials. All this came hard on the heels of Jeremy Hunt’s icy declaration on Friday that ‘the words she used are not words that I would have used’.

When the temperature around a senior colleague drops so far and so fast it means Downing Street has not issued a supportive ‘line to take’ for those going out on the airwaves. So that minister’s number is almost certainly up.

But his apparent decision to remove Braverman to try and restore his own authority places Rishi Sunak in a position akin to that of a bomb disposal officer who must cut the right wires in the right order. His strategic challenge is to rid himself of his most turbulent minister without wholly alienating that substantial segment of the Conservative electorate which has swung behind her this autumn.

Other Tory leaders – Theresa May, Liz Truss, Boris Johnson – have locked horns with Braverman and come off worst, after all. And she can be expected to have her own plan in place for how to handle a dismissal.

Some around the PM want him to sack Braverman today as part of a lightning-quick Government reshuffle. But that would give her the whole week in Westminster in which to cause trouble for him. A Commons resignation statement made shortly after the Supreme Court delivers its verdict on the Rwanda plan on Wednesday would provide her with a superb platform: the sort of platform Geoffrey Howe and Norman Lamont used to break sitting PMs.

Other Tory leaders – Theresa May, Liz Truss, Boris Johnson – have locked horns with Braverman and come off worst

Were the Government to have lost the court judgment then Braverman could ignite Tory-leaning voters in the country by calling for an immediate withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights. That could leave Sunak looking like a washed-up establishment stooge who has more in common with Keir Starmer than with gut Conservatives.

Government reshuffles are generally best conducted late in the week for this very reason: the disenchanted and betrayed must head off to their constituencies to lick their wounds rather than gathering in Westminster tea rooms or back rooms to plot a collective revenge.

Sunak’s best bet by far is to use Braverman’s biggest weakness against her. This is the impression – which has registered with right-wing voters as much as with left-wing ones – that she is better at whipping up controversy than at actually implementing beneficial change.

So when he dismisses her – my best bet is that this will be on Thursday – expect it to be accompanied with negative briefings to that effect. This means that he will probably replace her with someone known for being calm, authoritative and good at delivery. Looking around the cabinet table there are not many obvious contenders. Were Kemi Badenoch to step into her shoes it might persuade some on the Tory right to stay their hands a while. More likely the dextrous Michael Gove will finally achieve his ambition of holding a great office of state.

The new Home Secretary will need to be given some red meat to throw at furious grassroots supporters. Emergency legislation to ban further Middle East-connected marches in London until the end of the year might do the trick. If the Government has won in the Supreme Court on Rwanda it can be briefed that the new incumbent will make sure that every possible complication is addressed so that deportation flights can begin early in the New Year. If it has lost then expect whispers – probably unfair ones – that Braverman’s neglect of detail gave the justices an excuse to strike it down.

This is likely to be a bruising week for both Sunak and Braverman. One of his strongest cards is that she is even more unpopular with the left-leaning political journalism pack than he is. Many broadcast lobby hacks in particular will be happy to peddle disobliging lines about her.

Yet Fareham’s very own Joan of Arc has an incandescence about her these days. Establishment barbs may bounce off her and she may find new ways to connect with the wider electorate from the backbenches. She won’t go quietly and she may not be gone for long.