Iran’s attack on Israel signals a new era. For the first time, Iran targeted Israel directly, not only through proxies – and not in a way that leaves room for deniability in order to limit Israeli reprisal. The attack on Saturday night, in response to the killing of two Iranian generals in Damascus by Israel, included 185 explosive drones, 110 ballistic missiles and 36 cruise missiles launched from Iran, Iraq and Yemen. Israel, alongside allies that include American, British and Jordanian forces, managed to shoot down 99 per cent of the munitions aimed at Israel and avoid the death and destruction that would have ensued. The question is what happens next.

Iran’s action show that it is getting increasingly belligerent and reckless

It’s highly likely that Israel will respond, but the country is under intense pressure to limit its actions in order to avoid escalation. US president Joe Biden has urged Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to ‘take the win,’ adding that the US will not help Israel retaliate against Iran.

Israel’s cabinet is split over the scale, aim and timing of a response. Hawkish nationalist members are pushing for a powerful strike in order to re-establish deference and perhaps even start a war that will give Israel an opportunity to disable Iran’s nuclear programme. Others are urging a limited response that also takes into account American interests.

The success in fending off Iran’s attack gives Israel the option to respond in a way that will not escalate matters, for example by bombing strategic but relatively minor Iranian targets or attack Iran’s proxies in the Middle East.

Prior to the attack, Israel’s allies have become highly critical of its conduct in the war in Gaza. However, when Israel came under attack, those allies acted decisively in order to defend it. The incident brought renewed sympathy towards Israel and a better understanding of the threat it’s facing.

Israel would be wise to pick up on this, and capitalise on the realisation in the West, and in parts of the Middle East, that Iran is a regional and global threat. Netanyahu understands that a major direct strike against Iran could escalate the war and anger his allies. Although Iran doesn’t seek war, it would attack in response to a public humiliation.

Israel’s response would need to balance de-escalation interests with the need to deter Iran from future aggression on a similar scale. Although the previous attack was staved off, it’s not guaranteed that Israel’s air defences will be equally successful next time.

The US and UK believe that the worse case scenario is a full-scale war with Iran, that could drag them in and perhaps involve Russia and China supporting Iran. This is indeed a chilling and dangerous scenario. But there is a worse option of avoiding war now – and fighting a much more dangerous war later, when Iran has nuclear weapons.

Iran has consistently threatened to annihilate Israel and has targeted Jews internationally. It has attacked Israel through its proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah. It has been arming and training Hamas in Gaza. It carried out terror attacks against Jewish targets around the world, including the bombing of the Israeli embassy in Argentina in 1992 and, two years later, the bombing of a Jewish centre, also in Buenos Aires, killing 114 and injuring over 300.

Iran has also acted against regional rivals such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and supported the Houthis in Yemen in a war that caused severe hunger and nearly 380,000 casualties.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been providing assistance to terrorists and militants across the Middle East, Europe and elsewhere. It helps the Iranian regime to violently repress Iranians at home and abroad. It is designated as a terror organisation by the US.

Iran is a major cause of regional instability and international terrorism, and it’s on its way to achieving nuclear capabilities. Fighting off an Iranian attack if Iran has the bomb would be an entirely, and much more terrifying scenario for all involved. De-escalation right now is desirable, but not at a price of allowing Iran to pursue nuclear ambitions.

Iran’s action show that it is getting increasingly belligerent and reckless. The impressive collaborative effort against Iran should be used to tackle the unacceptable and growing Iranian threat. Forming a close alliance of Western and Middle Eastern nations against Iran and all of its proxies. The IRGC should be proscribed and sanctioned, and the Iranian nuclear programme should be actively stopped.