Parliament’s return from recess this week means the Rwanda Bill is now back in the Commons for the final game of ping pong. Rwanda has previously dominated the news agenda whenever it is debated in parliament. But this week it is expected – by both supporters and opponents of the scheme – to feature far less heavily in the headlines. One government source referred to this week as ‘process-y’, with a Rwanda sceptic conceding that ‘a horrible sense of inevitability hangs over the final stages of this process.’ After the titanic battles of December and January, in which both the Tory right and the opposition parties fulminated against this bill, the Whips’ Office is expecting a relatively straightforward few days. ‘The dye is cast’, admits one Tory rebel.

Before the Easter break, the House of Lords passed a second set of seven amendments and returned the bill to the Commons. Much like the first set of ten amendments – all of which were rejected by the lower house – Tory MPs will again be instructed to vote down each of these seven amendments. There will be one amendment in lieu with regards to Baroness Butler’s Schloss’s proposed change on modern slavery. This is to avoid double insistence – when the two chambers cannot reach agreement on part of a Bill – and will not have any impact on policy. The timeframe is likely thus: the Commons rejects the seven Lords amendments today, the Lords then have another go with just two or three amendments tomorrow and then the Commons rejects them again on Wednesday.

Royal Assent could be granted as early as Thursday this week. With the legislative hurdles surmounted, the question then becomes about ‘operationability’. Much of the debate has been about when the first flight will get off the ground, with yesterday marking the second anniversary of the scheme being unveiled. Sunak’s critics have queried why it has taken six months for his much-vaunted ’emergency legislation’ to pass through parliament. But those within government maintain that the time has been put to good use in ironing out ‘chinks in the armour’ and preparing for the inevitable legal challenges. One suggests that Rwanda is not so much about getting one flight, filled with dozens of asylum seekers, off the ground, as ensuring a constant, steady stream of them until it becomes mundane.

The passage of the bill could not come at a more important time, with the advent of summer heralding the highest number of small boat crossings each year. Nearly 5,000 people crossed the Channel in the first three months of 2024 – slightly up from the previous record high of 2022. The next three months will be critical to Sunak and Cleverly’s efforts to keep this year’s number as low as possible. If the Rwanda scheme does get up and running, then we ought to start to see this summer whether relocating some asylum seekers is an effective deterrent to others.