For the past 18 months, the UK economy has been stuck in the purgatory of an eternally predicted but non-arriving recession. The Office of Budgetary Responsibility (OBR), Bank of England, and the IMF have been among those to have predicted recessions that have not – yet – happened.

But now, for what it is worth (which, to judge by the history of economic forecasting, is not much), one often-pessimistic body has stuck its neck out and said that Britain will avoid a recession.