Let’s be realistic … if counterintuitive. Despite the many illustrious commentators and foreign affairs specialists warning and worrying in the columns of newspapers, in my humble opinion, Chinese President Xi Jinping is not dumb enough to invade Taiwan, irrespective of how Russia fares in Ukraine. He is smart enough to know that keeping the sword threateningly hovering over Taiwan best serves the Communist Party’s geopolitical objectives as well as its domestic imperative.

The international community is tying itself in knots trying to second-guess China.