Why the US will probably strike Iran again
It was bound to happen. Leaving aside, for the moment, the burning question of whether the US strikes on Iran…
Whatever happens, Iran will still seek a nuclear weapon
An Iranian politician sits on a sofa giving an interview about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. “Why should Iran not have a…
Striking Fordow will not solve the Iran problem
The world is watching Donald Trump to see if he will give his military the green light to use one…
The Islamic Republic has been weakening for months
In October 2023, the mullahs of the Islamic Republic could look within Iran’s borders, and beyond, and be content with…
Israel isn’t close to victory over Iran
Amongst a swirl of pronouncements from Tel Aviv, Washington and Tehran – and against the dramatic backdrop of an Iranian…
How likely is regime change in Iran now?
The clue is in the name of Israel’s operation. ‘Operation Rising Lion’ is a direct reference to the Pahlavi flag used by…
What will Iran do next?
‘They are scared. You can hear it in their voices,’ someone wrote to me on Friday from Tehran. And in…
Iran is feeling emboldened
After the cautious optimism of the early rounds of US-Iran talks, and Donald Trump’s Gulf roadshow, the US government has claimed that…
What can we really expect from the US-Iran talks?
This weekend in Muscat, US and Iranian diplomats held a fourth round of talks, continuing their efforts to find a…
Is Putin preparing to abandon Iran?
As the world reels from the chaos of a geopolitical order turned upside down, and as we wait to see…
Iran’s Donald Trump dilemma
To talk or not to talk? This is the slogan that’s doing the rounds among the Islamic Republic of Iran’s…
Iran’s Donald Trump dilemma
To talk or not to talk? This is the slogan that’s doing the rounds among the Islamic Republic of Iran’s…
Will the Syrian Civil War create another ISIS?
There are unintended consequences, and then there are unintended consequences. What we are seeing in Syria, as Aleppo and Hama…
The winds of change are blowing in Iran
The mood music from Tehran regarding Donald Trump’s election victory was a mixture of ‘don’t care,’ and ‘very much do…
Regime change in Iran is a bad idea
In 2012, as the Islamic Republic showed signs of buckling under the weight of US and EU sanctions, Senator John…
War in Lebanon could end up creating Isis 3.0
As Israeli troops make incursions into southern Lebanon, in the wake of recent successful aerial and covert campaigns against Hezbollah, Tel Aviv appears ascendant. Iran, by…
Why a major war in the Middle East feels inevitable
Sun Tzu, the Chinese military strategist writing roughly 2,500 years ago, said that ‘Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to…
Why the death of Ebrahim Raisi both matters, and doesn’t
Not only does the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, in a helicopter crash in the fog and mountains in northern…
Iran is dangerous – but rational
We’ve been here before. Iran has been here before. In 2020 its most senior IRGC commander, Qassem Soleimani, was killed…
