The easiest and fastest way to fix a political screw-up is to replace the leader. New leader. New era. It works for failing governments and fumbling oppositions.
They learned this behaviour from the era of kings and tribal warlords. A quick trip to the scaffold or field of battle cleaned out the dead wood of leadership.
These days we like to consider ourselves to be more civilised.
Exits are executed like a dance that ends with a bow and golden handshake in the form of a taxpayer-funded retirement package and sometimes even bronze statues.
Leadership switches allow a political party to (wrongly) wipe the slate clean and pretend that their previous policy failures have nothing to do with the 99.99 per cent of remaining ministers and is instead solely the responsibility on that one person they sacrificed in front of the press.
There are exceptions. Sometimes a leader really is the problem. Politics is a long story. It does happen.
However in general – particularly in the era of featureless, factional facades wandering the political landscape – the actual leader has very little to do with the core problems of the party.
Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan is the latest example of a leader potentially being nudged toward the noble sacrifice as the MPs behind her look for ways to hold onto their seats.
Based on a few shaky opinion polls, punters think there’s a few percentage points in a switch.
This comes after Labor sank through the ratings while the Opposition clawed its way upwards. It’s pretty messy, though.
In 2022, it was a two-party split between Labor (37 per cent) and the Coalition (34 per cent). Now we’ve got a three-way with Labor (23 per cent), Coalition (27 per cent), and One Nation at (25 per cent). It’s no wonder the Federal Liberal Party President Tony Abbott is calling for preference deals with One Nation. They’d be mad not to, and yet in the past Labor have successfully scared the Victorian Liberals away from orange preferences.
Answering the rumours, the Premier said:
‘I’m all in … I am absolutely determined to see this through.’
She added: ‘I think it’s fair to say that we don’t need polls to necessarily tell us that the old rules of politics are changing. We also see how … One Nation is cannibalising the Liberal Party vote, the National Party vote. And I will acknowledge it is taking a slice out of the Labor vote as well.’
And to be fair, there is not much of a reason for her to leave.
You would hardly say Allan’s leadership is in critical trouble. Oh sure, the state of Victoria has a terminal budget illness and a cultural crisis, but for reasons that no one over the border understands, they will likely win the next election.
‘She absolutely is the best person, not to lead Labor, but to lead Victoria because Victoria needs a strong Premier. I’ve known Jacinta for a long period of time,’ said Anthony Albanese, shortly after sharing a stage at a Labor function.
Red flags everywhere.
Literally. Labor brandishes its socialist-coded branding with pride.
Labor has been in charge of Victoria for long enough to completely destroy the state’s economy. Twelve years of Labor, much of it under Daniel Andrews, has left its scar. It doesn’t help that Andrews is being immortalised in bronze for his 3,000 days in office (a legacy many Victorians would rather forget).
Victoria’s election is set for November, and the circling rumours of a leadership challenge to Jacinta Allan feel weak.
It’s hard to tell if Labor are afraid of the Liberals (worrying polls) or the rise of One Nation chewing on their Old Labor working class vote (a genuine problem).
According to reports, 30 seats might be in trouble, particularly in the outer regions which remain vulnerable to One Nation. These are the seats at the front of cultural issues such as mass migration, higher taxes, and Net Zero technology. There is an element of the unknown, as One Nation has never mounted a full assault on Victoria.
As others have pointed out, Opposition Leader Jess Wilson needs to hang onto all her current seats and win an additional 16. Labor is worried about 30. This can be read as Labor scoping out the One Nation threat.
There is a window of opportunity for leadership swaps, and now is the optimal time. If Jacinta Allan survives into July, she’ll likely be safe from everything except cheeky advertising campaigns.
Besides, who else does Labor have to offer? No one particularly likeable or compelling. Certainly no one with any substantial policy changes. The most probable candidate, Deputy Premier Ben Carroll, was present in the Andrews’ years so his nose can be rubbed in Labor’s mess just as easily as Allan’s.
It seems this leadership muttering is more likely to be a bit of pre-election scouting to collect data on the Premier’s problem spots.
‘This next election is about a choice,’ said the Premier.
‘Do you want a Labor government … that will continue to help? Or a Liberal outfit that’s all about cuts and One Nation that’s all about chaos?’
It is difficult to say what Victorians want. They are somewhat of the Bermuda Triangle of politics.
Despite the desperate situation of Victoria’s finances being a matter of national concern, it seems likely Labor will be voted back in with a majority. It is difficult to find anyone who thinks Labor is doing a good job and sitting down with a coffee with your average Victorian will result in a long list of grievances. They hate everything. From taxes to machete wars. And yet they will drag themselves to the polls and re-furnish Jacinta Allan with the premiership.
Why?
It is a complex question that has a lot to do with the dysfunctional Opposition that spent the best part of the last few years tearing itself apart over Moira Deeming. Lately, these factions have had their mouths duct-taped shut, but their shared resentment continues to simmer. It is so toxic that voters are rightly concerned about the Liberal Party’s structural stability. Labor might be a nightmare, but it is a coherent one. The moderate and conservative wings of the Liberal Party are so different they may as well be entirely separate parties and this casts doubt on which policy suite will prevail. Even their current leader has backflipped on several critical topics which leaves voters wondering which way they will vote when they’re not trying to win voters over from One Nation.
What are the Liberals going to do with the unions?
This is also a huge question.
The Liberals will require an effective war machine and overwhelming majority to government to properly navigate the union power structures and the open projects which are dragging past their due dates and draining money Victoria doesn’t have.
It is a strange reality that the CFMEU are the biggest problem for Labor’s public performance and also, potentially, the political glue sticking them to power.
What happens in November? Who knows, but Jacinta Allan will almost certainly be there to witness it.
Flat White is written by Alexandra Marshall. If you would like to support her work, shout her a coffee over at donor-box.
