Last month, Prime Minister Albanese went on a charm offensive in Jakarta, gifting Indonesian President Prabowo’s cat, Bobby Kertanegara, a red scarf emblazoned with the words ‘Australia ♥ Indonesia’ – a slogan more suited to a schoolgirl’s diary than to international diplomacy.

Prabowo’s PR team has skillfully deployed Bobby – a stray – to rebrand the former commander of Indonesia’s Kopassus Spe-cial Forces as a cuddly, cat-loving grandpa. It worked. After two failed presidential bids, Prabowo finally succeeded, despite lingering concerns over his links to atrocities in East Timor in the 1980s and 1990s, the abduction of pro-democracy activists in 1997-98, and the crackdowns on the May 1998 riots that led to his discharge from the military. With Bobby by his side, it was third time lucky.

Albanese’s ‘Hello Kitty’ diplomacy wasn’t even original. Twice last year, the Chinese embassy lavished gifts on Indonesia’s ‘First Cat’: a set of scratching posts, climbing platforms and toys in March, followed by a three-storey cat mansion in December – complete with ladders, bridges and tunnels.

Albanese often takes his diplomatic cues from Beijing. After Israel’s pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear program and missile sites, he echoed Xi Jinping’s call for ‘dialogue and de-escalation’ – though it was obvious the time for dialogue had passed. What was required was for Israel and the US to neutralise the threat. Eventually, and belatedly, Albanese managed to express support for the US bunker-busting strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. For his fealty – or perhaps to ensure he follows Beijing’s lead even more closely – he has an audience with Xi in China in July.

Mending fences with Indonesia shot to the top of Albanese’s post-election to-do list after Jane’s Defence Weekly reported on 14 April, near the end of the federal election campaign, that Russia had formally requested access to station long-range aircraft at Manuhua Air Base. The proposal included developing a strategic orbital launch site, essentially a space base, just 1,300 kilometres north of Darwin.

If Albanese thought feline diplomacy could loosen Prabowo’s budding bromance with Vladimir Putin, he’ll be disappointed. Albo may have bonded with Bobby, but as Indonesia’s Foreign Minister says Putin and Prabowo have ‘chemistry’.

Last week, while Albanese endured the humiliation of being stood up by President Trump at the G7 Summit, Prabowo skipped it entirely to attend the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, where he was feted by Putin.

The forum’s theme, ‘Common Values – Foundation of Growth in a Multipolar World’, said it all. A rogue’s gallery of delegations from 140 countries – China, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, even Taliban officials from Afghanistan – assembled in a show of solidarity with Putin-style kleptocracy.

It was cold comfort, though, for Russia’s Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov, who admitted that Russia is ‘on the verge of recession’. War spending may have temporarily boosted the economy, but sanctions are biting. UN data shows foreign direct investment in Russia has plunged over 60 per cent in the past year; foreign holdings are down 50 per cent since 2021. With inflation rising, the Russian central bank has hiked interest rates to 20 per cent. Ouch.

None of this deterred Prabowo, now arguably Putin’s best friend in Southeast Asia. They signed a strategic partnership covering trade, agriculture, nuclear energy, military-technical cooperation and joint naval exercises. Crucially, they reaffirmed their commitment to build the space base on Biak Island.

Indonesia claims the base is for civilian use, but such facilities are easily adapted for military reconnaissance, maritime surveillance, signals intelligence and aerospace logistics. Its proximity to northern Australia makes it ideal for spying on RAAF bases in Darwin and Tindal and the US-Australia joint facility at Pine Gap. Russia could also attempt to jam these operations.

The US has spoken of a ‘pivot to Asia’ since Hillary Clinton’s 2011 Foreign Policy article heralding ‘America’s Pacific Century’ but it has struggled to follow through, distracted most recently by wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Ironically, Western sanctions have driven Russia to pursue its own pivot. Russia and China are already planning joint military exercises in 2025. Putin’s June 2024 visit to Vietnam produced a mutual defence pact. In North Korea, he signed a Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, and North Korean soldiers have become cannon fodder in Putin’s war of attrition in Ukraine. Russia has held naval drills with Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei, and signed energy deals with India, Pakistan and Mongolia.

Space diplomacy is not new for Russia. The Soviet Union cemented its military involvement and bases in Syria, its only footholds outside the former USSR, by sending Syrian pilot Mohammed Faris into orbit, turning him into a national hero. In another ironic twist, Faris defected to Turkey during the Syrian civil war, denouncing Assad and accusing Russia of ‘killing the Syrian people with their planes’.

Following Assad’s fall and flight to Moscow, Russia has withdrawn most of its military assets from Syria. It is now trying to negotiate with the Turkish-backed Islamist regime to retain its bases. An attack on Russia’s air base where Alawites (the ethnic minority to which Assad belongs) were sheltering after massacres in March underscores the difficulty, illustrating the hostility to Assad and the erstwhile ruling Alawites, and to Russia for backing them.

For Moscow, a space base at Biak offers a foothold in the Indo-Pacific at the perfect time. Its equatorial location is ideal for satellite launches, a new military client state will bring in welcome revenue, and its proximity to Australia’s north, with their rotation of US soldiers, makes it a geopolitical coup.

On Sunday, Dmitry Medvedev – former president, prime minister, Putin sidekick and Deputy Chair of Russia’s Security Council – said that ‘a number of countries are ready to supply Iran with nuclear warheads’. The remark was widely understood as a signal that Russia itself is prepared to do so, to prevent Iran’s collapse, as Syria did.

That’s the nightmare on our doorstep: a nuclear arms broker, propping up autocrats and theocrats, spying on our bases and arming our neighbours.

We must dissuade Indonesia from partnering with Russia. But that requires working closely with our allies, chiefly the United States.

If things continue as they are, Albanese’s first meeting with Trump may not happen until the UN General Assembly in September. Let’s hope the US understands the importance of defending Pine Gap, even if our PM seems more interested in TikTok cats than standing with our allies.