Nobody can know for certain the consequences of President Trump’s trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The worst-case outcome is that America has once again inflamed the deep enmity towards Western-generated modernity that persists throughout the Islamic world. A better outcome is that the ‘moderns’, as they are characterised in the Greater Middle East, are so empowered by Trump’s peace-through-commerce strategy that the extremism of the ‘brothers’ – the Muslim Brotherhood types, not to mention the Salafi jihadists – goes into abeyance. There is also, just as importantly, the possibility Trump has won a victory against China.

Consider, for instance, the importance both Washington and Beijing place on the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology. The advent of DeepSeek earlier this year, the breakthrough China chatbot, provided a glimpse of Beijing’s ambition to become an AI superpower by 2030. Fareed Zaria, writing for the Washington Post, described it as a ‘Sputnik moment’ in what some are calling Cold War 2.0. Whoever wins the AI race, according to the experts, will earn the right to control the world’s digital eco-system and assume an unassailable position of global dominance.

China is clearly in it to win it. Beijing, as reported by the BBC, is currently pouring vast amounts of money into AI development: ‘There are more than 4,500 firms developing and selling AI, schools in the capital Beijing are introducing AI courses for primary and secondary students later this year, and universities have increased the number of places available for students studying AI.’ Bluntly put, AI has the potential to amplify human effectiveness in everything from call centres up to and including waging war with humanoid robots. No one can be certain where this great leap forward is leading humanity but geo-political reality means nobody is about to put the brakes on.

The Emiratis, many were surprised to discover, also have an ambition to be an AI superpower by 2030. They had the money and the substructure to achieve their goal but lacked the high-end technology to turn that dream into reality. The Biden administration, fearing the growing ties between Abu Dhabi and Beijing, restricted the export of advanced US-made chips to the UAE. This is where Trump’s visit to the UAE comes into it.

Now, we are assured by the Trump administration, President Mohamed bin Zayed has made a solemn pledge to distance his country itself from China and align the UAE’s national interest with the USA. Trump, as a consequence, is giving the green light for the Emiratis to import advanced semiconductors from the US and so construct the largest AI facility outside of America. The UAE, in turn, has promised to invest some $1.4 trillion in the US economy, much of that – in the words of an official White House release – involves ‘AI infrastructure, semiconductors, energy, quantum computing, biotechnology and manufacturing’.

We might note that Nvidia, a giant American company and the world leader in AI, has been designated to sell 500,000 advanced AI chips annually to the UAE. It will also be exporting cutting-edge digital technology to Saudi Arabia. Nvidia has promised to help the kingdom develop its own AI industry. This good news for the company is offset by the White House’s announced restrictions on the future sale of Nvidia’s advanced AI chips to China, a market CEO Jensen Huang has estimated to be worth $50 billion.

All this sounds like a win-win for Trump – America has found extraordinary wealthy partners to enhance its do-or-die AI battle with Beijing, while China itself can longer count on two oil-rich countries to do its bidding. And there is more. At the Saudi-US Investment Forum, Trump praised Prince Mohammed bin Salaman, de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, for being one of ‘a new generation of leaders’ – that is, one of the moderns – who are ‘forging a future where the Middle East is defined by commerce, not chaos, where it exports technology, not terrorism, and where people of different nations, religions, and creeds are building cities together – not bombing each other out of existence.’

It is the ‘restrainers’ or isolationist wing of Trump’s inner circle who are, reputedly, the most alarmed by the deals struck with the UAE and Saudi Arabia. They point to Vice President J.D. Vance’s pronouncement at a recent AI summit this in Paris: ‘[T]he Trump administration will ensure that the most powerful AI systems are built in the US with American-designed and manufactured chips.’ David Sacks, Trump’s chief AI advisor, responded to the rumoured in-house criticism on X: ‘The only question you need to ask is: does China wish it had made these deals? Yes of course it does. But President Trump got there first and beat them to the punch.’

Paradoxically enough, it is the ‘prioritisers’ in Trump’s team who are by definition China hawks – that is, America’s foreign and domestic policy should prioritise the threat from China even if that requires, on occasion at least, a little neo-conservative foreign intervention. Trump, being Trump, appears to shift between the ‘restrainers’ and the ‘prioritisers’ depending on what his instincts tell him. On the subject of the UAE he might be right; on Saudi Arabia, I am less certain. Is it churlish to recall that 15 of the 19 radical Islamic terrorists of the 9/11 attacks were born in Saudi Arabia? And when it comes to Qatar, which has bankrolled Hamas over the years to the tune of $1.8 billion and is the home to Al Jazeera, maybe the time has come to close down America’s Al Udeid Air Base.

The genius of the Abraham Accords during Trump 1.0 was that it encouraged Muslim countries, like the UAE, to officially break with the millenarian, retro-caliphatist fantasy that the Jewish state can be erased. Moreover, antisemitism is often just a version of anti-Westernism and anti-modernity tribalism. If Trump can persuade Saudi Arabia – let alone Qatar and Syria – to sign on to the Abraham Accords in the future, we could be more assured that his peace-through-commerce strategy really is a winner.