Yet again the question of whether to send arms to Ukraine is plaguing Olaf Scholz’s chancellorship. The issue was once more thrown into sharp focus when Russian intelligence leaked a discussion by Bundeswehr officials on the probability of sending long-range Taurus missiles to Kyiv. A recording of the conversation was splashed across the world by Russian state media.

Scholz has spent the past week trying to get a grip on the debate over Taurus missiles and shut it down, even fielding questions from plucky students on a school visit as to why he had yet to relent: ‘I am the chancellor and that’s why’. But it seems the true reason Scholz is dragging his heels is one he is reluctant to admit: that month by month support for Ukraine is plummeting in Germany.

The issue of sending weapons to Ukraine has repeatedly haunted Scholz since the beginning of the war

A new poll released yesterday evening by ARD Deutschlandtrend has revealed 61 per cent of Germans are against sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine. This marks an increase of 9 percentage points from last August when this question was last posed by the pollsters. By contrast, just 29 per cent – down from 36 per cent – support sending these weapons to Kyiv.

The poll reveals that the highest level of support for sending Taurus missiles is coming from Green and liberal FDP party voters, with just over half from each backing the proposal. Support for both parties has, in recent years, skewed demographically young: in 2021, they were the first and second-most popular parties with voters under 30. These Germans, who tend to identify as politically centrist and predominantly live in cities and urban areas, are also the first generation who have no living memory of living in a divided Germany. To them, living in the Communist East Germany or Soviet Union-fearing West is a remote concept that has been taught in schools or passed down through anecdotes from older relatives. In this context, the fact they are the biggest portion of the German population who seem willing to stand up to Russia’s aggression and support Ukraine makes sense.

The controversy over sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine centres around their potency as a weapon. They have a range of 310 miles: far enough for Kyiv to target locations well behind the Russians’ front line, but crucially also far enough to send them into Russia itself. Ukraine has been asking for them for months, and emphatically denies that it would aim them at Russian soil. But nevertheless, it seems that Scholz doesn’t quite trust Kyiv to stick to its word. In light of the consistent drone attacks in Moscow and its environs over the past 18 months that were most likely pulled off with Ukrainian support at the very least, Scholz can hardly be blamed for being sceptical.

Some Germans fear that, were German-supplied Taurus missiles to find their way onto Russian soil, this would pull Berlin very firmly into the conflict. This was something the Bundeswehr army chiefs themselves touched on in the leaked conference call they held.

The issue of sending weapons to Ukraine has repeatedly haunted Scholz since the beginning of the war. Despite being Kyiv’s largest European aid backer, Berlin has consistently stalled on sending military support, be that tanks, fighter jets or other weapons. Every time so far though, Scholz has eventually relented and performed humiliating U-turns to give the Ukrainians what they are asking for. But might this time be different?

The strength of opposition amongst the public to sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine shines a strong light on why Scholz is holding firm on the issue so far: the chancellor has his sights firmly set on the elections heading Germany’s way over the next 18 months or so.

ARD Deutschlandtrend also conducted polling on broader voting intentions. The results show that both the right-wing AfD and two-month old left-wing Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) are draining support from the establishment political parties. The AfD is currently polling at 19 per cent, making it the second-most popular party in Germany at the moment; the BSW is polling at 6 per cent. Together, support for the two parties is currently dwarfing that for Scholz’s SPD which is trailing behind at 16 per cent.

What both the AfD and BSW have in common is their opposition to supporting Ukraine. As fears continue to simmer that Russia could target Germany in any evolution of the war (a reported 62 per cent of Germans are worried about this according to ARD Deutschlandtrend’s poll), voters are finding both parties increasingly appealing.

The feeling of vulnerability amongst Germans was further highlighted by the results of the poll that suggested that three quarters of Germans believe that raising the country’s defence spending to 2 per cent of GDP (mostly as a result of a one-off €100 billion (£85 billion) fund designed to bring the army up to scratch) is the right thing to do. The turning tide of opinion against Ukraine has not been helped by the admission of Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius last year that the army’s stock of weapons has been hugely depleted because of the aid already given to Kyiv. The mood, it seems then, is an introspective one: Germans have had enough of playing at being world saviours.

Scholz’s authority on the question of Taurus missiles could be put to the test as soon as Thursday. The centre-right CDU/CSU party is pushing for the Bundestag to vote on the matter and rumours have begun to circulate that MPs from Scholz’s traffic light coalition (consisting of the SPD, Green and FDP parties) could rebel and vote in favour of sending them to Kyiv. This has the potential to have significant repercussions for Scholz’s subsequent ability to control his government, both on this issue and a plethora of domestic challenges.

Scholz’s authority has already taken a big beating over his handling of the country’s response to the war in Ukraine. Just how many more nails in the coffin can he take?