Budget day is approaching and what was once seen as a window of opportunity is now being talked up as a moment of dread. Jeremy Hunt has gone from comparing himself in January to the former tax-slashing chancellor Nigel Lawson to telling the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg on Sunday that, in reality, fiscal constraints mean on Wednesday he will be closer to a ‘prudent’ Gordon Brown. Rishi Sunak is still hoping to make good on his promise of a ‘gear shift’ on taxation. But given the government has less space for manoeuvre than they envisaged at the beginning of the year, any tax cuts will be accompanied by difficult decisions elsewhere.

Hunt and Sunak are still finalising the package the Chancellor will unveil on Wednesday. There’s talk of tension between the Prime Minister and his Chancellor – with No. 10 having strong views over what should be in the Budget, given it could be the last fiscal event between now and the election. Sunak wants to deliver on tax cuts but the worry is that on the current projections of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) of £12.8 billion means that there isn’t the option of big tax cuts.

It’s Tory MPs who are most likely to take issue with the focus and the very idea of raising tax

Many Tory MPs were banking on such an announcement if they are to turn the tide and keep their seats. Were the government to repeat the 2p off National Insurance that was in the autumn statement it would come to £9 billion. This could still be possible – and is the cheaper alternative to 2p off income tax which costs £14 billion. While some in the party believe Hunt and Sunak should not be hamstrung by the OBR, given what happened with Liz Truss’s mini-Budget they are unlikely to risk anything that could spook the markets.

It means the pair are now looking at potential tax rises and spending cuts to allow them to announce a consumer tax cut. As I reported previously, one aspect of this is government spending. Total government spending is meant to increase by 1 per cent beyond 2025 – but this could be reduced to for example a 0.75 per cent increase. The exact details of how this would shake out would be something for a future spending review – decided by the next government. Such a move would see the Tories accused of making Labour’s hand, if they win the next election, even harder. And suggest the Tories aren’t worrying too heavily about having to govern past polling day.

This could be accompanied by a focus on reducing tax breaks for the wealthy, whether it is clamping down on second home owners, increasing the cost of business class flights and changing the scope of Non Dom tax relief. The latter option is already a Labour policy and all three of these measures are unlikely to be opposed by the main opposition. Instead it’s Tory MPs who are most likely to take issue with the focus and the very idea of raising tax. It means for all the hope at the beginning of the year that the Spring Budget could be a game changer for the Tories, it now has the potential to reopen the debate about what exactly this Conservative government is for.