Another day, another damning poll for the Tory party. This time it’s a survey by Ipsos for the Evening Standard that finds the Conservatives have hit their lowest level for 40 years. The poll puts the Tories on 20-points, falling from 27-points back in January. It means Rishi Sunak’s party is 27-points behind Labour and his personal ratings are not looking great either, with a net approval score of -54. Keir Starmer isn’t exactly popular but he is faring better than Sunak. The Labour leader’s net approval rating is -26.

To put this poll into perspective, the Ipsos Political Monitor started in the late 1970s and has never before recorded a Conservative vote share this low. As for the smaller parties, Reform manages 8 per cent of the vote and the Liberal Democrats are on 9 per cent. It means despite a run of bad polling for the Tories, this one could well be regarded as the worst yet. Of course, it’s only one poll – and other polls in recent weeks have suggest the two parties to be closer, with a Labour lead ranging between 15 and 20 points. Just today, Deltapoll has published a poll finding the Labour lead has narrowed to 14 points – this poll data is newer with the fieldwork taking place between Thursday to this Monday.

So, what if anything, does this mean for the Tories? Of course it adds to the sense that the Conservatives are on course for a historic defeat. So far there has been little sign of recovery or Sunak’s efforts winning over the public. Ahead of the Budget, the poll also finds that Labour are seen as having the best policies on managing the economy by a margin of 31 per cent to the Conservatives on 23 per cent. However, a Savanta poll out today offers a little more Tory optimism here – finding the public still associate the Conservatives (40 per cent) with economic security over the Labour party (35 per cent).

Given most Tory MPs have come to the conclusion they are heading for defeat at the election, the poll isn’t going to come as a huge surprise but it could make MPs in formerly safe seats nervous that they too are at risk. It comes as there is once again chatter in Westminster that the Tories could be tempted to go early and spring a May election on the public.

While a May election has been discussed previously by No. 10 aides, it is unlikely. The argument for going early is that things will only go worse as the year goes on, so why not cut your losses and go now. However, polls such as this one make it rather hard to argue that going to the polls before the Tories need to is a good idea. What’s more, while there are plenty of problems coming up the track, the current picture is not good – the Tories will not want to call an election while the UK is in a technical recession.