The battle for Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast is a bloodbath. The city, which is also called the ‘gateway to Donetsk’, is semi-surrounded. Some 50,000 Russian troops are trying to advance from three sides while they keep the main supply route into the city under artillery fire. At least 15 per cent of Avdiivka has been captured – and battles are being fought in urban areas. ‘We are forced to fight at 360 degrees against more and more brigades that the enemy is bringing in,’ said Andriy Biletskyi, commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade, which was deployed to rescue Avdiivka last week.

Russia has sufficient manpower and artillery superiority, so its army is less keen on sending wave after wave of poorly trained troops into battle. Instead, it is deploying assault groups supported by tanks, armoured vehicles and aviation. Russian units are trying to seize the Industrial Prospekt road – the Ukrainian army’s vital logistical artery – to split the city in two. This would force Kyiv to rely on field roads to get supplies to both the northern and southern areas of the city. The morale among Ukrainian troops is deteriorating as they become exhausted and frustrated over a lack of weapons. It appears that Russia’s decade-long campaign to capture the city will culminate in weeks, if not days.

But rather than retreating, Oleksandr Syrsky, the new head of the Ukrainian army, has sent assault forces to Avdiivka in an attempt to push the Russians back to positions they held at least two weeks ago. History is repeating itself: Syrsky earned the nickname ‘butcher’ after he led Ukrainian soldiers to death in Bakhmut last year. Back then, both he and Volodymyr Zelensky argued that holding the city for more than ten months, even when Ukraine’s allies recommended retreating, was a strategic move. But, they said, it allowed them to destroy the most combat-capable units of the Russian forces, thereby bolstering Ukraine’s position for future battles. Eventually, the city was captured by Kremlin-backed Wagner Group mercenaries, at least 20,000 of whom died in the process. The number of Ukrainian deaths is unknown.

Now Syrsky is grappling with a familiar dilemma: holding Avdiivka halts Russian advances, but prolonging the battle for the devastated city may no longer justify the sacrifice of Ukrainian fighters. The fighting will continue until Zelensky and Syrsky believe that they are inflicting more damage on the enemy than on their own soldiers. There is also a political angle to it: another Russian victory could fuel US aid cuts and bolster Donald Trump’s idea that, if he were elected as president in November, he would urge Ukraine to agree to negotiations with Russia.

Soldiers I spoke to say while they are under orders to fight, they will do their best – but they doubt that clashing head-on with Russia is the best available option. ‘Cut off the advancing enemy forces from the flank!’ said Bohdan Krotevych, a major in Ukraine’s National Guard. ‘All assault and mechanised units will better carry out offensive actions in a direction where the enemy is not expecting it, than they will suffer under constant fire, not being able to do anything at all, except just to delay time.’ Others believe that decisions to remain encircled should be made by the generals on the ground, not from offices in Kyiv. Ukrainian fighters defending Avdiivka can only hope that when the order to retreat comes, it won’t come too late.