Following weeks of stagnation in the negotiations between Israel and Hamas over a deal for the release of Israeli hostages, Hamas has finally responded. Perhaps unsurprisingly though, the terms they have proposed are unacceptable to Israel.

Hamas is demanding a long ceasefire, lasting four-and-a-half months, that would lead to a permanent truce. Their terms include the withdrawal of Israel Defense Forces (IDF) from Gaza and an end to the war, rehabilitating Gaza under Hamas’s continued governance, and the release of 1,500 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails with the guarantee that they will not be rearrested for the same offences. This would include 500 prisoners of Hamas’s choosing, whose offences are so severe that they are serving life sentences.

An outcome of the war where Hamas still rules Gaza cannot be accepted

In return, Hamas would release the hostages they still hold in three stages, each lasting 45 days. In the first stage, women, the elderly and children would be handed over. In the second stage, male hostages would be released; the final stage would include the return of bodies.

The terror group’s proposal comes a day after a leaked Israeli intelligence report revealed that at least 30 of the 136 hostages held by Hamas are believed to be dead. Of those, the majority were killed by Hamas during the 7 October attack and their bodies taken to Gaza to be used for negotiations with Israel.

Families of the hostages, along with the majority of Israelis, are urging the government to reach a deal with Hamas. They know that with each passing day, more of the hostages – some wounded or sick – could die, or be killed. Protests in favour of a deal, along with those against prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government, now happen regularly and are gathering momentum.

However, even those who support a deal know that Hamas’s current terms would be unthinkable. An outcome of the war where Hamas still rules Gaza cannot be accepted. The terror organisation has proven its determination to destroy Israel. Hamas leaders have vowed to conduct more attacks similar to the savage 7 October attack in which 1,200 men, women and children were brutally murdered and over 250 were abducted and held hostage under inhumane conditions where they faced torture and sexual assault.

If Hamas continues to rule over Gaza, the organisation would rebuild itself, its weapons arsenal and its tunnels, and continue to target Israel. It would also continue to radicalise generations of Gazans and indoctrinate them into Islamist ideology that favours war over peace and glorifies martyrdom and bloodshed over reaching a settlement. It would be a triumph that would cripple Israeli deterrence against other enemies that want to destroy it – namely the Lebanon-based militant organisation Hezbollah, and Iran.

Qatar, one of the main negotiators between Israel and Hamas, understands that Hamas’s deal is unacceptable to Israel and is trying to get Hamas to soften its demands. This won’t be an easy task: the hostages are Hamas’s only bargaining chip and they are trying to use them in order to guarantee the organisation’s survival in Gaza. With the stakes so high for Hamas, they are unlikely to budge much on their demands.

A crucial step forward would be if Hamas agreed to more realistic terms. But even if Hamas agreed to a temporary ceasefire, rather than a full withdrawal from Gaza, Netanyahu may still find it difficult to sign a deal. The far-right ministers and members of Knesset (parliament) in Netanyahu’s government have threatened to withdraw from the coalition if the government agrees to a ‘bad’ deal with Hamas. They object to the release of dangerous Palestinian prisoners and to a prolonged ceasefire. Although they represent a minority, their departure would collapse Netanyahu’s government.

This places Netanyahu in a difficult position. On the one side, is the Israeli public, who overwhelmingly favours a deal (although not the one currently proposed by Hamas); on the other, are the members of his own coalition. One of Netanyahu’s staunchest critics, former prime minister Yair Lapid of the opposition party Yeah Atid, vowed that he would join the coalition in order to keep the government from collapsing should Netanyahu’s ministers abandon ship. This is an attempt to provide Netanyahu with the assurance to go ahead with a deal, and to reassure him that political differences would be set aside to make it possible for the hostages to return.

Israeli officials believe that the only way to get Hamas to soften its position is through continued military pressure. The IDF is advancing in an effort to tighten the noose around Hamas’s leaders in Gaza to such an extent that they might be willing to accept a deal. However, Hamas’s leaders outside Gaza, in Qatar and elsewhere, are encouraged by the sight of Israel coming under intense international scrutiny and are hardening their positions.