When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Biden administration earlier this week that he objects to the establishment of a Palestinian state, the intended audience was his base of supporters – or what little of it he has left.

Since the start of the war on 7 October 2023, Netanyahu had zig-zagged between rejecting the idea of Palestinian rule over Gaza and showing some level of flexibility about the idea of a reformed Palestinian Authority (PA) managing Gaza’s day to day governance, with Israel managing the region’s security.

Netanyahu is torn between his dependence on the approval of his right-wing voters and his reliance on American support. The American administration has been extremely supportive of Israel, providing ammunition, protection from Houthi attacks from Yemen and deterrence against Iran and Hezbollah, as well as justifying the war internationally. But Biden’s warm embrace extends to the state of Israel, not to Netanyahu. Their personal relationship has been strained from the start – and Netanyahu’s latest statement will make matters worse.

Since the start of the war, Biden has consistently called for a reformed Palestinian Authority to take over the governance of Gaza. Until this week it seemed like the Israeli government was warming up to that idea, despite its reservations about the PA’s ability to govern Gaza.

But Netanyahu is consistent about only one thing: serving his personal and political interests. His priority is keeping his position as PM and avoiding being found guilty in the various corruption charges levelled against him. He considers any action that helps him to be ‘kosher’.

Netanyahu and his government were deeply unpopular before the war, and have become even less popular as a result of Hamas’s massacre on 7 October. The government’s focus on passing unpopular, and in some cases undemocratic, laws and policies instead of paying attention to the growing threat from Gaza, has led many to blame it for the many failures that enabled Hamas’s surprise attack. Its divisiveness is also seen by many as having encouraged Hamas to carry out their campaign.

More than three months later, things do not seem to be going well. Hamas is more resilient than Israel has anticipated and the government has failed to recover all of those abducted, with the number of hostages killed in Gaza rising continuously. This is causing divisions among the public and in Israel’s parliament, the Knesset.

A recent poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that only 15 per cent of the public wants Netanyahu to remain prime minister after the war. Among Netanyahu’s own Likud party, only 36 per cent want him as prime minister. It’s his hardcore support base that Netanyahu speaks to when he rejects Palestinian statehood, knowing that his comments do not reflect the mood of the general public.

Although Israelis distrust the PA – and their confidence that a peace settlement can be reached has reached record lows following Hamas’s attack – there is a realisation that plans have to be drawn up for what comes after the war. The public has little appetite for a prolonged military presence in Gaza.

Israelis are also extremely critical of Netanyahu’s far-right members of the coalition, who continually damage Israel’s reputation with statements about controlling Gaza and driving Palestinians out of the territory. Although these statement do not represent the government’s policy, they fuel anti-Israel sentiment and protests around the world. They also increase Biden’s frustration with Netanyahu.

Instead of standing up to those extreme actors, Netanyahu bows to them as they divide Israeli society and incite against those who seek a deal with Hamas for the release of hostages.

Netanyahu’s behaviour comes at a cost – not only in terms of public support, but with divisions in his own government. Netanyahu and his defence minister Yoav Gallant barely speak anymore. Gallant is convinced that Netanyahu’s decision-making is based on political considerations rather than practical ones. The two distrust each other and differ in their opinion about a plan for Gaza after the war.

Gallant has introduced his own plan for Gaza. It includes establishing a governing body that is not hostile to Israel and the removal of Hamas from all positions of power, with Israeli forces replaced by a global task force. The plan came as a surprise for Netanyahu, and his far-right ministers vehemently objected to it.

Netanyahu always relies on scaremongering. Whenever he seeks to increase his support, he conjures scenes of destruction for Israel, from Iran, Hezbollah or the Palestinians, and positions himself as Israel’s saviour. He routinely claims that his removal from power will place Israel in great danger. He does this because, until recently, his fear-mongering worked. Similarly, he claims that the creation of a Palestinian state will endanger Israel.

Now that his support base is diminishing, he will do and say whatever he can to keep his coalition intact, even if it comes at the expense of Israel’s relations with the Biden administration. It may even come at the expense of reaching a deal for the release of Israeli hostages.

Those close to Biden have advised him to publicly declare his lack of confidence in Netanyahu. Doing so may pressure Netanyahu to break away from the extremists in his government and adopt a more sensible position, or bring elections closer, after which the most likely outcome will be a centrist coalition that Biden will find easier to work with. In the meantime, the Americans are in talks with the Saudis and others, making plans for Gaza despite Netanyahu’s position.

Netanyahu is under considerable pressure, but he has never handled pressure well. He nearly always chooses to stand by those who will keep him in power rather than doing what is best for the country. The same is true of his latest plan to leave a dangerous power vacuum in Gaza.