The truth about America’s Democratic base
Tuesday evening saw the second polling upset in as many weeks in the Midwest. In Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, David…
Will Republicans blow California Governor’s race?
Eric Swalwell has dropped out of the race for California Governor after a series of sexual misconduct allegations. Republicans may…
Elon Musk’s America party could hurt Republicans
Elon Musk has set up a third party and pledged to contest next year’s midterms. But to find a third…
The polls are wrong (again) on Trump
“Trump has lowest 100-day approval rating in 80 years,” screamed ABC News at the start of this week. The ABC…
Why Donald Trump is winning
Trump is headed to the White House. As I write, that is the consensus of almost all political experts, including…
Who should Kamala Harris make her running mate?
It’s Kamala. The result of the last 48 hours, capping off one of the most eventful weeks in American political…
Farage’s return is Rishi Sunak’s worst nightmare
From the moment the Conservatives called this summer election they seemed doomed: Sunak had failed to deliver on his five…
The statistic that should terrify Tory HQ
The tightening looks on. On Tuesday, my polling firm JL Partners published its first campaign poll showing a 12-point Labour…
Sunak’s snap election looks like a calamitous error
Until yesterday there was a fair amount of goodwill towards Rishi Sunak amongst his colleagues. Tory parliamentarians would not have…
Voters agree with Lee Anderson about cracking down on crime
Lee Anderson, the recently-appointed Tory party deputy chairman, has sparked a political row with his comments on capital punishment. ‘Nobody…
Boris is no Trump – and that’s why he’s doomed
In the last week, I’ve been crisscrossing the United States, meeting with politicians and their advisers ahead of this year’s…
A plea from a pollster: stop listening to the public
When Dominic Cummings released his WhatsApp messages with Boris Johnson earlier this month, perhaps the most alarming was the one…
Is Britain really a nation of lockdown-lovers?
A quick read of the polls, and you would be forgiven for thinking we are a nation of lockdown-lovers, clamouring…
Boris will regret a no-deal Brexit
Much has been said about the prospect of no deal over the past few days – the economics, arguments over…
Tories should be terrified of John McDonnell
Once again, question marks surround Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. This is not new. While I was at 10 Downing Street, with the small…
