Israel today killed top Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri, in the most significant assassination since the war against Hamas started almost three months ago. His killing in Lebanon is not only an operational success, but will boost Israeli morale.

The fight against Hamas since 7 October has been fierce and difficult. Despite successes in uncovering and destroying many of the group’s tunnels in Gaza and killing thousands of terrorists, the challenges remain significant and the casualty count is high. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) still have months of fighting ahead of them, and it’s doubtful that they will manage to destroy Hamas completely. This has been cause for concern in Israel.

Targeting Hamas leaders has been a priority but up until today the IDF had only managed to kill field commanders and several key figures. Al-Arouri was one of Hamas chiefs Ismail Haniyeh’s deputies, and one of the founders of Hamas’s military wing in the West Bank, which he also commanded. He served time in Israeli prison between 1992 and 1997 and again between 1998 and 2007, and was on America’s most wanted list.

Hamas referred to al-Arouri as the ‘architect’ of the surprise attack on 7 October. The killing took place in Beirut’s Dahieh neighbourhood. Dahieh is dominated by Hezbollah – the Iran-backed militant organisation and political party that is part of the Lebanese government. The attack was highly sophisticated, requiring reliable real-time intelligence and use of precision weapons. Images from the scene show that the strike was localised and contained.

Israel’s ability to reach al-Arouri and kill him in Lebanon will raise alarm among other Hamas leaders. It shows that Israel is capable of killing them, and is intent on doing so. Even though Hamas announced today that it will stop ceasefire negotiations in response to the attack, Israel hopes that the killing will eventually apply pressure on Hamas’s leaders to negotiate a temporary ceasefire deal in return for the roughly 130 Israeli hostages still held in Gaza.

Since the collapse of the previous ceasefire deal nearly one month ago, Hamas has refused to negotiate. Its leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, demanded a permanent ceasefire before negotiations for releasing hostages can even begin. Various initiatives, most made by Egypt, have been rejected by Hamas and talks were at a stalemate.

Israel expects there to be a harsh response from Hamas

In the past few weeks, Israel hoped that expanding the military operations will push Hamas into accepting a deal, but that hasn’t happened. The dramatic assassination may be a step in the right direction, although before anything else happens, Israel expects there to be a harsh response from Hamas.

Hezbollah may also attack Israel in response to the killing. Since the war started, Hezbollah’s offensives were limited and included drone attacks and missiles fired into Israeli towns – most of whom have been evacuated from civilians at the start of the war. Hezbollah still wants to avoid an escalation into a full war against Israel, but it may feel an obligation to Hamas and react in a more aggressive way – especially since the killing was done in its own territory. Hezbollah’s leaders, who are by now hiding in their bunkers, must also be alarmed by the assassination.

Al-Arouri’s significance in the West Bank could also prompt attacks from terrorist cells there. Whether retaliatory attacks emerge from Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon or Yemen, Israel is prepared for those eventualities, including for a possibility of attacks against Jewish targets abroad.

The US administration is pushing Israel to switch to a limited warfare. The IDF has been reducing forces and started to release reservists from service, but there is still time until warfare changes significantly in Gaza. Right now – while Hamas refuses to negotiate a ceasefire – Israel will keep expanding its military activity in Gaza, and continue to pursue the killing of Hamas leaders.