The March presidential elections in Russia will, of course, be a stage-managed farce, but that doesn’t mean that real politics has been entirely extinguished. It offers a narrow window of opportunity for the opposition to try and connect with the Russian people – so the Kremlin is doing its best to muzzle them.

On the third anniversary of his return to Russia on Wednesday, opposition leader Alexei Navalny issued a statement on X (via his lawyers, his only connection with the outside world) intended to bolster his supporters’ morale. He returned from Germany in 2021 following a poisoning attempt that saw government agents lace his underwear with Novichok. Answering the question as to why he came back even though he knew he would be arrested and imprisoned on trumped-up charges, he framed it in terms of simple patriotism and conviction:

I don’t want to give up either my country or my beliefs. And I cannot betray either the first or the second. If your beliefs are worth something, you must be willing to stand up for them. And if necessary, make some sacrifices.

The Kremlin is clearing the decks of anyone who could become an embarrassment during the election campaign

Fundamentally, he wrote, ‘the people in power must change’. After all, those in power now are, in his eyes, simply interested in retaining power, whatever it takes: ‘so, our polygamists have become conservatives. Members of the [Communist party of the Soviet Union] are Orthodox Christians. Owners of [foreign] “golden passports” and offshore accounts are aggressive patriots.’

Nonetheless, he assured his followers that ‘Putin’s state is not viable. One day we will look at his place and he will not be there. Victory is inevitable. But for now we must not give up and stick to our convictions.’

Some of Navalny’s critics – sometimes simply pro-Putin voices eager to smear him – characterise him as a nationalist or even a racist. However, while he did initially welcome the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and back in 2007 had made derogatory comments about people from the North Caucasus, he has since distanced himself from both positions. He has campaigned to ensure the rights of all Russians, regardless of their ethnicity, are protected under the law.

Yet it also speaks to one reason why the Kremlin so clearly fears him: he is probably just nationalist enough to be a threat. He returned home, turning down a cushy life as the kind of professional expatriate who encourages Russians to challenge their thuggish state from a safe and comfortable berth in some Western thinktank. Other Russian oppositionists who have taken the émigré route have lost their credibility and legitimacy at home. Navalny, though, took the fateful (but hopefully not fatal) decision to return home, whatever the cost. As a result his patriotism is hard to question.

Considering that he is immured within the high-security IK-3 ‘Polar Wolf’ prison colony, it might seem strange that the Kremlin is worrying. Yet in the midst of an unpopular war, with inflation at 7.5 per cent and periodic heating blackouts, Putin’s political technologists are clearly jumpy and taking no chances. Navalny’s lawyers are coming under pressure, clearly to try and close even this narrow channel of communication between him and the Russian people. Three were detained in October on ‘extremism’ charges, and this month a fourth was also charged, albeit in absentia as she had been able to flee the country.

Even government critics who are supportive of the war are being muzzled. Next week, the court case of ‘turbo-patriot’ figurehead Igor ‘Strelkov’ Girkin is likely to conclude, again on amorphous ‘extremism’ charges. He is set to be convicted, despite some clear procedural irregularities. Likewise, the leftist Sergei Udaltsov was recently arrested, and faces a potential 7-year sentence for purportedly ‘justifying terrorism’. Leader of the radical Left Front, Udaltsov has been a bitter critic of Putin’s regime, even while supporting the war. Yekaterina Duntsova, the liberal journalist who tried to stand against Putin in the elections has faced all kinds of official obstruction to her efforts to register her political party and was even arbitrarily stopped and forced to take a drug test. Many regard this as a warning that worse could follow.

The Kremlin is clearing the decks of anyone who could even conceivably become an embarrassment during the election campaign. Putin’s victory is not in doubt given the mediocrities who have been allowed to stand against him and the control the Kremlin has over both the media and the electoral process. (Needless to say, the official media wholly ignored Navalny’s thread.) But that is not enough for them: they want to make this a wholly-managed campaign, without any drama, tough questions or unexpected hiccups. It is a sign of their fears – and also a reason why figures like Navalny are all the more eager to make their voices heard.