It’s back to Brexit in parliament this week as Rishi Sunak puts his plan B to salvage the government’s flagship Rwanda scheme to a vote in the Commons. The Safety of Rwanda Bill – which declares that Rwanda is a safe place to send illegal migrants and states that international laws including the Human Rights Convention will have no effect – has its second reading tomorrow. The last time a government bill was defeated at a similar stage was in 1986 on Sunday trading.

The reason defeat is viewed as a possibility is that both the left and right of the party have issues with the policy: the right says it does not go far enough while the left says it goes too far. This lunchtime, the European Research Group met to discuss their options after bringing back their Brexit era so-called ‘star chamber’ of legal experts to assess the proposed bill. The verdict? The ERG say it offers a ‘partial and incomplete solution’ to the problem of legal challenges being used to delay people being flown to Rwanda.

They conclude that the bill does not go ‘far enough to deliver the policy as intended’. The star chamber says that the bill contains no restrictions on bringing legal challenges except over whether Rwanda is not a safe country. Given that individual claims from those seeking to avoid being removed from the UK tend to include a variety of claims, they say it does not prevent legal cases being launched based on a person’s individual circumstances.

It’s back to Brexit

So, where does this leave Sunak’s plans? Notably there were about 15 MPs in the meeting – including Sunak’s former home secretary Suella Braverman – which raises questions about how significant a force today’s ERG is. However, recently departed Home Office minister Robert Jenrick will tonight address the New Conservatives – largely made up of 2019 red wall MPs. This group is already sceptical of the bill.

If these groups all come together and decide to actively vote against it then Sunak could in theory come close to the 29 MPs required to vote against in order for it to be defeated. What could get them there is if MPs in the One Nation group also take issue with the bill, be it for completely different reasons. This group will meet this afternoon to discuss whether they should oppose it on the grounds that it goes too far in ignoring international law.

ERG chair Mark Francois suggested today that he has made no decision on how to vote – adding that ‘the bells don’t ring until 7 p.m’. It means that MPs will stretch this out for several hours more as they push for concessions. However, any concessions Sunak gives to one side will only further alienate the other half of his party.