The debate over the necessity of Ukraine’s presidential elections is creating chaos in a nation at war. The ceasefire among Ukrainian politicians is crumbling as some of them start to chase votes. Oleksiy Arestovych, a scandal-hit former adviser to the head of the presidential office, has called Volodymyr Zelensky a dictator and announced he will run for office in the next presidential election, whenever it happens.

Arestovych is a master of selling illusions

Arestovych, 47, was one of the most famous members of Zelensky’s team and gained popularity at the beginning of the full-scale invasion. He was the calm voice on TV that conveyed simple messages and war updates to millions of Ukrainians on behalf of the authorities, from the president’s office. With soothing predictions delivered in hushed tones, Arestovych became a firm political favourite, with his face adorning cups, t-shirts, and pillows. He was even included in a list of the most popular Ukrainian politicians last year, taking third place after Zelensky and General Valery Zaluzhny (Arestovych won 2.4 per cent of the vote with Zelensky on 59 per cent).

However, as the war persisted well beyond his initial projections that it would last ‘two to three weeks’, trust in Arestovych’s words began to wane. His popularity crashed after several scandals and his assertion that Ukraine should not distance itself from Russian culture and must become a real refuge for ‘good Russians’. Then, in an interview with a Russian lawyer, Arestovych suggested that a missile which hit an apartment block in Dnipro and killed several dozen people was shot down by Ukrainian air defence forces and fell on the building. Once his claims were debunked by Ukraine’s air force, Arestovych resigned and pursued a career as a blogger.

While most Ukrainian politicians were reluctant to be drawn into political rivalry during the war, Arestovych became more and more active in criticising Zelensky’s government. On Wednesday, he published a kind of pre-election programme in Russian, targeting voters less devoted to Zelensky’s plan of forcing Russia out of all occupied territories – including Crimea. Arestovych suggests making the transition from the counter-offensive to ‘strategic defence’, and made his own ‘proposal to the collective West’. ‘We are ready for Kissinger’s option – we demand accession to Nato with the obligation not to retake the territories occupied at the time of accession, but to seek their return only through political means,’ he wrote. He also said he would allow men of conscription age to travel abroad with the condition that they must return once they are drafted.

Arestovych is a master of selling illusions. He is capable of instilling in ordinary people both a belief in imminent victory (as he did last year) and the fatalism of defeat (what he is doing now). Arestovych presents Ukrainians with a seemingly ‘easy way out’ of the war: surrender occupied territories to Russia and Nato will supposedly welcome Ukraine with open arms. Reforms, higher salaries, and freedom to flee the country are promised. It’s unclear how many Ukrainians will buy into his narrative (the majority of Ukrainians object to any deal with Russia), but his entry into the political arena doesn’t bode well for Ukraine’s future.