Against the background of the war in Ukraine, a diplomatic row is brewing between Russia and Finland. Last week, Finland announced that it would imminently be closing four of its eight border crossings into Russia, promptly doing so on 18 November. The reason? An unexpected increase in the number of illegal migrants coming over the border from Russia in recent weeks. Finnish minister of internal affairs Marie Rantanen put the blame for this squarely on Russia. ‘The activities of the Russian authorities have changed in such a way,’ she said, ‘that it has become possible to get from Russia to Finland, despite the lack of necessary documents.’

At midnight on Saturday, the crossings at Vaalimaa, Nuijamaa, Imatra and Niirala – the most southerly of the checkpoints along the 830-mile Russo-Finnish border – shut. They will remain so until 18 February, although it is likely the closures will be extended further.

Finland’s hurried decision to shut four of its border crossings was triggered by the arrival of a large number of third-country asylum seekers from Russia, reported by Finnish public broadcaster YLE to be over 500, since the start of November. If correct, this represents a staggering increase of nearly 1,500 per cent on October, when just 32 migrants crossed in the whole month, with 13 crossing in the month before that.

Adverts placed on social media in Arabic advertise these smuggling trips into Europe

Given the number of migrants crossing the English Channel, this may not seem like a huge number to those in Britain, but the Finnish population is just over 5.5 million. This means that, proportionally, the influx of migrants crossing the border into Finland is significant. The number of asylum seekers who have reportedly crossed this month alone has exceeded Finland’s yearly annual refugee quota of 500.

Russia, unsurprisingly, has denied Finland’s allegations of deliberately orchestrating this influx of migrants. The Russian foreign ministry called the accusations ‘strange’ and claimed they would look into it. On Monday, Moscow summoned the Finnish ambassador to complain about the decision to close the border crossings. In a statement issued afterwards, the ministry called the decision ‘clearly provocative’. It said that it ‘clearly goes in line with attempts to further aggravate our relations’. ‘The decision was made hastily,’ Moscow said, ‘without any consultations with the Russian side.’

Not all in Finland are supportive of the government’s decision. Over the weekend there were protests in the cities of Helsinki and Lappeenranta from Finns who say it will make it harder for them to see their relatives in Russia.

But Finland’s government insists the measures are necessary. The head of the Finnish Border Guard’s legal division, Tomi Kivenjuuri, doubled down on the claim that Russia is facilitating the increase in asylum seekers arriving at their border. He said. ‘It is very likely that the Russian authorities are heavily involved in the transport operation. Very probably the border guards are involved on their side.’

Intriguingly, some on the Russian side have corroborated this version of events. Speaking to the Russian-language independent publication Mediazona, the mayor of the Karelian town Kostomushka (19 miles from the Finnish border), Sergei Novgorodov, implied Russian border guards were turning a blind eye to those crossing their side of the border without proper paperwork. Imitating a phone conversation with a border guard, he said ‘“Today, no one expects any border crossing here.” “Hello? Hello?” The connection is gone, that’s it!’

An investigation by the Russian-language newspaper Fontanka revealed that the route these migrants tend to take is to travel to Moscow or Minsk by plane, entering the country with legal paperwork, before taking the train up to St Petersburg. Then they are driven to the border by traffickers and told to seek out bicycles to buy (priced at between 3,000 and 10,000 roubles (£27 to £90)) or steal to cross the border on.

The paper discovered adverts placed on social media in Arabic which advertise these smuggling trips into Europe, charging between €2,000 and €5,000 (£1,740 to £4,350). That price has reportedly now gone up since Finland closed those crossings that are easier to access.

As well as posing a security threat to Finland and the wider Schengen area of free movement, the influx of illegal migrants piling up at the border presents a humanitarian issue for the country. Temperatures along the Russo-Finnish border now regularly dip below -10C. There have been reports of inadequately dressed migrants arriving on the Finnish side hungry and frostbitten. It then becomes Finland’s obligation to look after them.

The Kremlin’s cries of innocence in this matter are falling on deaf ears. Estonia and Norway, too, are threatening to close their borders with Russia, with Estonia also claiming to have seen an uptick in irregular migrants trying to enter the country from Russia. Branding it ‘orchestrated refugee pressure’, the Estonian interior minister Lauri Läänemets said ‘the purpose of all this activity is to destabilise society and cause people to worry and fear and reduce trust in the government and state institutions. But we will not leave it as it is, we will act decisively’.

There is precedent for this ‘refugee pressure’ that suggests flooding border crossings into the EU and Schengen area is a Western interference tactic straight from the Kremlin’s playbook. In 2021, thousands of migrants were sent over the border from Belarus into Poland and Lithuania – apparently with the blessing of the country’s president and Putin’s puppet, Alexander Lukashenko.

Finland’s decision to close half of its border crossings marks the latest in a series of deteriorations in diplomatic relations with Russia. Strongly hawkish towards Russia, Helsinki has firmly backed Ukraine ever since the beginning of the invasion in February last year. With little explanation other than the ‘endangerment of the country’s international relations’, Russian citizens have been banned from non-essential travel into Finland since September last year.

Ever since Finland announced its intention to join Nato last year, the Kremlin has been ramping up its hostile rhetoric towards the country. In June this year, Helsinki expelled nine Russian diplomats from the country over allegations of spying. In July, the Kremlin responded, kicking out nine Finnish diplomats and shutting down the Finnish consulate in St. Petersburg.

The spat brewing over crossings through the Russo-Finnish border shows no signs of dissipating any time soon, particularly if Estonia and Norway also decide to shut their borders. The ball is in Helsinki’s court.