To no-one’s surprise, Chris Pincher has now quit as a Tory MP, preferring to resign now rather than drag out a recall petition over the coming months. For more than a year, everyone could see this coming since the infamous evening at the Carlton Club. Everyone that is, except Tory high command. Pincher lost the party whip back in July 2022, with a by-election likely ever since the Standards Commissioner began an investigation.

So who did the good Tories of the Tamworth Association select to replace Pincher? Eddie Hughes, the incumbent MP for Walsall North. That selection raised the possibility of a scenario whereby Hughes won the Tamworth by-election but then triggered a second contest in his current, more marginal, constituency. To avoid this outcome, the Tamworth Tories look likely to select a second candidate to fight the looming by-election contest, with Hughes still expected to fight the general next year.

Tamworth is an interesting constituency: it was Labour until 2010 but has since then trended Conservative in the elections since. Pincher won it in 2019 with a majority of nearly 20,000; a defeat here would likely spark jitters among MPs with lesser majorities. Labour faces a challenge but mounted an impressive performance in this year’s locals, increasing their representation on the council from one to eight out of the ten available seats. The contest could now be held on Thursday 12 October – the same day as the contest in Mid-Bedfordshire to replace Nadine Dorries.

Talk about a double whammy to close the conference season…