It’s three years since the UK formally left the European Union and cut off free movement, and net migration has reached a record high: 606,000 in 2022. This total (measured by the number of new arrivals, minus people emigrating from the UK) is 118,000 higher than last year. This is certainly an increase from 2021, but nothing like the estimates that had been floated in recent weeks that suggested the net figure would be at least 700,000 – possibly even as high as one million.

The estimates originally came from a Centre for Policy Studies report, which calculated (based on visa...