As MPs return to parliament after the Christmas break, Rishi Sunak is under pressure both on the NHS and strikes. Union leaders have been invited for talks with ministers today in a bid to find a landing zone (though there still seems to be a rather large gap between the two sides). Yet while aides in Downing Street worry about domestic issues, it’s another story that had MPs animated over the weekend: the prospect of a Boris Johnson comeback.

Key Johnson ally Nadine Dorries penned a piece for the Mail on Sunday declaring the Tories ‘must bring back Boris or die’. In her article – which referenced a report in the paper that Keir Starmer has been warned the return of Johnson poses the greatest threat to Labour at the next election – Dorries writes: ‘The future of Conservative MPs rests in their own hands, and they have a simple question to ask themselves: do they want to remain as MPs or not?’

Dorries isn’t alone. She is one of a number of political figures (from Jake Berry to Mark Spencer) to publicly suggest that Johnson is likely to return whether it is this side of the election or after a Tory loss in 2024. The new Conservative Democratic Organisation – backed by prominent Johnson backers Priti Patel and the Tory donor Lord Cruddas – is technically about giving power back to the members. But given Johnson’s support among the grassroots, some MPs see it as a front for a Boris comeback.

Johnson would face plenty of obstacles that would give the former prime minister pause for thought

As one MP put it to me about Johnson’s supporters before Christmas: ‘It’s very clear that they are creating the infrastructure in parliament and outside to mount a comeback.’ When would be the opportune time? With the polls showing little evidence of a Sunak bounce – even if he has improved the polls from where they were by the end of the Truss premiership – a bad showing at the local elections in May could create an opportunity.

However, for now, there is still cause for scepticism about the likelihood of a comeback. First off, Johnson himself is keeping his cards close to his chest – it is not yet clear that he wants to return and if he does whether he would want to come back so quickly given the state of the polls. He also still has the privileges committee inquiry hanging over him which could recommend a suspension (and therefore risk a by-election) if he is found to have misled parliament. It is one of the reasons some MPs sympathetic to Johnson chose not to back him last time.

Second, as things stand, his support base hasn’t really changed. Dorries would likely have written a rather similar piece back in November when Johnson was considering running against Sunak. The MPs Johnson needs to win round are those who didn’t back him last night. Speaking on Sunday night on Westminster Hour, Bob Seely, MP for the Isle of Wight, had his head in his hands when he was asked about the return of Johnson. He instead called for an end to the drama and for Johnson to campaign for Sunak.

There are MPs who believe it was a mistake to oust Johnson in the first place, but take the view that getting rid of another leader at this point would be even worse. It means that while it’s not impossible Johnson mounts a comeback later this year, he would face plenty of obstacles that would give the former prime minister pause for thought.