The question on everyone’s lips tonight is whether Boris Johnson can get 100 MP nominations by Monday. This is the bar that the 1922 committee have set.

Johnson’s supporters have been coming out tonight at pace: he is up to 20-odd supporters already. But the question of whether he can get to 100 is difficult given the circumstances that led to his departure and the coming privileges committee investigation. Johnson’s advocates, though, think that if he can get that 100 and make it to the member’s round, then he will become the favourite.

Rishi Sunak – whom I have been friends with for a long time – and Penny Mordaunt both ran in the parliamentary round this summer and so have pre-existing lists of supporters they can call on if they choose to run. Both received more than 100 votes in the final parliamentary round.

One other aspect of the rules is worth noting. There will be an indicative vote held when the field gets down to two candidates. This means that the members will have a clear idea who the MPs wants. Also, if this vote is not close, it will lead to pressure on whoever is second to drop out.