Tory MPs will likely have three candidates to vote for in Monday’s leadership race: Boris Johnson, Penny Mordaunt and Rishi Sunak. If Johnson runs, gets to the final two and it goes to the Tory membership, then he’s probably be back in No. 10 within days. Polls of Tory members put Boris ahead by a three-to-two margin in a multi-candidate scenario.

To stop Johnson getting in the final two, Tory MPs would need to cast their votes tactically to engineer a Sunak-Mordaunt playoff amongst members, in which Sunak would likely win.

But all this assumes Penny Mordaunt plays ball. Why would she be Sunak’s lobby fodder? Why allow herself to be used by his supporters to rig an election and prevent Tory members from being given the chance to vote for the person they want? You can see the arguments.

What are Mordaunt’s options? If she believes she could not defeat Johnson or Sunak in a run-off, why not bow out at the last minute – and extract a price? She could…

1. Bow out as soon as she gets to the final three and back Johnson, ensuring a Sunak-Johnson final, which Johnson would likely win.
2. Stay in the game and gamble on reaching the final two. Then end the race by dropping out in favour of the other candidate – who would then be in No. 10 in time for Monday’s EastEnders.
3. A gamble: stay in it to win it and hope members pick her in a runoff. So: no deals.

All this assumes Mordaunt has the 100+ votes to get in the final three, of course. If she does, she has the power to ask to be foreign secretary – or anything she likes outside No. 10 – by backing one of the other two. In which case, this whole race could be over very quickly.