Has Vladimir Putin carried out a cynical stunt, or ducked out of a seismic decision? That’s the debate among Kremlinologists tonight, as the Russian President failed to show up for a planned 8 p.m. address to the Russian people.

Faced with catastrophic losses of territory in north-east Ukraine, a weaker Putin has been considering his options. One that has been suggested is fully mobilising the population to fight, and introducing martial law, which the State Duma (parliament) proposed today. Men aged between 18 and 65 would be banned from leaving the country. Today also saw the announcement of referendums on Russian annexation for the Luhansk and Donetsk regions of Ukraine, as my colleague Lisa Haseldine reported. The results of these votes can be predicted with some confidence.

At the end of such a significant day, Putin was due to address the nation – the first time since he announced the start of the ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine back in February. This has instead been ‘rescheduled’ to tomorrow, according to Sergei Markov, a close adviser to Putin. The editor of Russia Today simply said ‘go to bed’. This could either be a panicked withdrawal or a calculated feint, though it would be a strange kind of trick.

The President was expected to speak on either the referendums in the occupied regions, or to formally declare martial law and conscription. In the hours before Putin’s speech, Google searches about how to leave Russia soared.

A formal recognition that Russia is at war is yet to be declared. Doing so would mean men being drafted in to fight against their will. Whether the Duma confirms mobilisation is largely for show as well. The past few months have shown that Putin can act when he wants: with parliamentary support or not.

Formal annexation of Ukrainian territory and preparing for mobilisation are hardly the signs of a war going well. Surprised by the Ukrainian counter-offensive, Putin’s next move may be more drastic. The resolve of Ukraine and its allies will be tested again.