‘Chaos’, said the headlines. ‘Revolts on the left and the right’, along with ministerial and backbench departures, both voluntary and involuntary, combined to give the media a field day as the Morrison government stumbled to last week’s end of the parliamentary year with Labor ahead in the polls. So how certain is the Coalition’s defeat at next May’s (?) election? During the thirteen years I spent in opposition, we were often well ahead in the polls – until each election day, the only time when it really mattered.