Barometer

Barometer: Who was the first warmist?

3 December 2015

3:00 PM

3 December 2015

3:00 PM

The first warmist

The first attempt to quantify the link between CO2 in the atmosphere and global temperatures was attributed to Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius, in a paper in the Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science in 1896. He was working on a theory to explain the oscillation between ice ages and interglacial periods. He calculated that increasing the concentration of carbonic acid (as CO2 was then known) in the atmosphere would result in a global temperature increase of 8 to 9˚C.
— His extrapolation was not that man-made carbon emissions were dangerous; but that the rate of coal-burning was cancelling out the process of CO2 absorption caused by limestone weathering. The implication of his paper was that fossil fuel emissions might delay the onset of another ice age.

Who’s a believer?

What proportion of scientists believe in the theory of man-made climate change?
99.8% according to James L. Powell of the National Physical Sciences Consortium.
97% according to John Cook of the University of Queensland, who undertook his own analysis of published papers.
91% according to Richard Tol of the University of Sussex, who re-examined John Cook’s work.
65.9% of scientists blame half or more of global warming on greenhouse gas emissions, according to a poll of 1,800 scientists by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.

Biggest emitters

Who emitted the most carbon in 2013, and how did their emissions work out per head? (The UK was 15th with 428 million tonnes).

Million tonnes
China
9,980
US
5,230
India
2,410
Russia
1,810
Germany
759
Iran
611
Saudi Arabia
519
Brazil
482


 

Tonnes per capita
China
7.2
US
16.3
India
1.9
Russia
12.7
Germany
9.2
Iran
7.9
Saudi Arabia
18.5
Brazil
2.4

Source: globalcarbonatlas.org

Warm reception

Which climate summit venue has had the most agreeable climate?

Ave. max daily temperature
Rio de Janeiro (June 1992)
25ºC
Kyoto (Dec 1997)
11ºC
Johannesburg (Aug 2002)
19ºC
Copenhagen (Dec 2009)
4ºC
Paris (Dec 2015)
7.5ºC

 

Ave. monthly rainfall
Rio de Janeiro (June 1992)
43mm
Kyoto (Dec 1997)
48mm
Johannesburg (Aug 2002)
6mm
Copenhagen (Dec 2009)
49mm
Paris (Dec 2015)
58mm


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