Political developments within countries cannot be analysed in isolation from the international context. The return of Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi to Iran, and the potential victory of the Iranian people in achieving regime change, if it occurs, would not merely be a domestic event but a part of the competition among great powers in the international system.
From a realist perspective, states are constantly seeking power and security, and great powers link different regions of the world to maintain the balance of power. In this framework, just as the Australia-Philippines defence pact is part of a strategy to contain China, the return of the Prince could also be seen as part of a strategy to contain Iran.
Classical realism (Morgenthau) and neorealism (Waltz) emphasise that the anarchic structure of the international system forces states to increase their power in order to survive.
From this perspective, in the Middle East, the Islamic Republic of Iran, through its regional influence from Lebanon to Yemen, has challenged the balance of power; in the Asia-Pacific region, China, with its growing military and economic power, is altering the balance against the United States. As the existing hegemony, the US remains active in both the Middle East and Asia-Pacific to prevent shifts in the balance of power.
From the perspective of offensive realism (Mearsheimer), great powers not only seek survival but also aim to increase their influence and prevent the emergence of rivals. The recent Australia-Philippines security pact is a clear example of this logic: the United States leverages its allies to contain and counter China. Australia, as a key US ally, defines its regional security entirely within the framework of American strategy.
In the Middle East, the Islamic Republic of Iran, through support for proxy groups, has shifted the balance of power against the US and its allies. From a realist standpoint, the United States employs various tools to restore the balance to its desired state: economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and support for opposition forces.
In this context, the return of Prince Reza Pahlavi can be seen not merely as a domestic transformation but as an instrument to reconfigure the balance of power in the Middle East similar to the role that Australia and the Philippines play in containing China.
Structural neorealism teaches us that security in one region cannot be separated from security in other regions. The simultaneous presence of the United States in the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East shows that these regions are interconnected within a single security system: in Asia, China represents a long-term rival to the US; in the Middle East, the Islamic Republic of Iran constitutes a regional challenge; and in both theatres, the US relies on local allies and actors such as Australia, the Philippines, Israel, and Prince Reza Pahlavi to maintain the balance of power.
From a realist perspective, the return of Prince Reza Pahlavi to Iran should be seen not merely as a domestic event or the victory of the Iranian people after 46 years, but as part of the structural competition among great powers in the international system.
Just as the US leverages Australia and the Philippines to contain China, it can use the Iranian opposition to contain the Islamic Republic.
In this way, the security of the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific, and even the political future of Iran, are intertwined within a common realist logic: balancing power against US rivals. Perhaps this is the clearest answer to the Iranian people as to why the US has finally listened to their voice after more than four decades: American interests now align with the aspirations of the Iranian people. The return of Prince Reza Pahlavi could provide a path to ending tensions and war in the Middle East.
By Leila Naseri: Author | Composer | Social Monarchy Activist
